The Lakers Playoff Hopes

A month or so ago I wrote an article about what I thought the Lakers playoff chances were with about 30 or so games left.  At this point I had them about 2 games over .500, but I did not have them beating some of the teams they did or losing to some of the teams they did.  I also thought it would be a struggle between them and Houston.

Things went a little differently.  The Lakers didn't struggle their way through this period.  They actually took advantage of a favorable schedule and beat the Bulls, Celtics, and Blazers.  Teams I had them losing too.  They really did well against the cupcake teams and almost pulled out a massive game against Atlanta that I proclaimed, at the time, would insure their playoff spot.  In the meantime Houston and Golden State put on a good run of form that locked up spots for both teams while Utah sunk below .500 and almost past Dallas.

Dallas had a decent run of form (considering they are below .500 that's a generous description) and got to the 9th spot and within range of the Lakers.  Still it seemed Utah and Dallas would be on the outside looking in with the Lakers finishing a comfortable 6 games over .500 for the month and possibly a chance to grab the 7 seed.  That's how I viewed in about mid March even after the Kobe injury.

Then the last 5 games happened.  The Lakers couldn't hang tough with the Suns yet again.  It was a back to back, but the Lakers needed that game.  I think the Lakers will look back at this season and point to those Suns loses as killer to their hopes, but they will have many losses to pick from.  After three days rest the Lakers collapsed against Washington at home.  For me that was a sign of something is wrong.  There is no way the Lakers should lose to Washington.  Kobe had returned along with Pau.  The Lakers blew a huge first half lead and were handled soundly by one of the leagues worst road teams.

A loss two days later to Golden State was no major surprise, but it didn't help the situation.  Minnesota has been an easy target without Kevin Love all season and a lucky no call staved off defeat.  So their the Lakers stood against Minnesota on Thursday night.  It was back to back, but a win would put them 3 over and likely they could end the month 4 over with a win against the Kings on Saturday.  Yet the Lakers imploded again, allowing a furious come back.  During the game Steve Nash picked up an injury, but worse so after the game Kobe had a bone spur issue.  So now the Lakers face a massive test against the Kings tonight.  The Jazz have had enough form to get back to 1 game over .500.  Putting them in a tie for the 8th spot.

The Lakers have nine games left.  Howard has been better health wise.  Pau should only improve.  Nash should be ok or miss only a game or two.  Kobe is very durable and probably won't miss much time if any at all.  MWP is a huge loss for LA as his six weeks out basically means his done for the year.  The Lakers face a very uphill climb in April.  Here's how I see it going down.

@ Kings
This is a huge game for the Lakers.  They don't have too many should win games left on the schedule, but a 70% Laker team should be enough for the Kings.  You have to wonder though if Kobe doesn't play with no MWP or Nash what chance they really have.  So if Kobe doesn't go they are dead meat in my opinion, but I think he does and they pick up the win.
38-36

Vs. Dallas
Dallas has been spotty all season hence why they are in the position they are in.  They have been better as of late and shouldn't be over looked.  The Lakers should get this one, but I'm going to say that a desperate Dallas pulls it out.
38-37

Vs. Memphis
I can't imagine a scenario where LA wins this game.  They have had an awful record against teams with winning records this year, let alone a top team in the West.
38-38

@ Clippers
The Clippers have owned the Lakers this year and I don't see that changing.  The Clippers have all the right pieces to hurt LA.  They're young, fast, and deep.
38-39

@ Hornets
This is a should win and a must win.  If the Lakers found a way to lose this one then it's lights out. I don't think they could emotionally recover from the media storm.  Yet, unless they are injury ridden, or the Hornets decided to have their game of the year, I see them walking through this one.
39-39

@ Trailblazers
This game is a tough one.  I think the Blazers hopes for the playoffs slipped away this week.  They will be hungry to hurt the Lakers chances, but I don't see LA losing this one.  The back to back on the road is a huge factor.  I'll give the Lakers the benefit of the doubt here.
40-39

Vs. Golden State
Golden State will likely be trying to improve their playoff position.  In any event they are too much for LA.
40-40

Vs. Spurs
Ok on paper this looks like a white wash, but the Spurs should have the #1 seed locked up at this point and so the big three will likely be wrapped in plastic.  Still the Spurs are so deep and good.  They beat the Bulls without the big three on the road and almost did it to the Heat.  I say the Spurs do it.  Although I think Pop secretly wants to play LA in the playoffs.
40-41

Vs. Houston
Houston won't have a ton to play form.  Maybe a playoff spot.  Still I think they relish a chance to KO LA.  What team wouldn't.
40-42

The Jazz probably beat that record, so it's likely it wouldn't get LA into the playoffs. All nine games are crucial, but the first one tonight has to be had.  The Lakers have to find a way to beat Dallas, which isn't a huge ask, but I just think the Mavs will be motivated by the trash talk from the last game and get that one.  Also, crucial is pulling the off the back to back on the road.  I see them doing it, but catching Portland on the 2nd day makes that tougher.  I see it going their way, but it must happen or their finished.

The doomsday scenario for LA is a losing the next four in a row, which you can easily see happening.  If their stars don't play against the Kings and Dallas beats them they might not have much left in the mental tank to even win another game.  The LA brass might have to start thinking about protecting it's stars.  Pau, Nash and Kobe might be shelved for next year.  The media circus around it all would be surely fascinating.

#cantwait