In order to do this Barca has to be very attack driven. They rumor has been floated they may start four strikers. A move that Tito pulled when they trailed in a few games early in the season. He brought in a 4th striker and took off a player a the back. I really like this idea, but never as a starting lineup. This is something Pep should have done against Chelsea in the second half of the UCL last season and Barca might have hoisted that trophy last season.
In this case I wouldn't do it. I've got two good reasons. The first is that Arsenal pinged three goals at home last year in the same stage against this Milan side. Barca only need two goals, which leads into my second point. Yes 4 is probably what needs to be scored, but if Barca score first then they are probably a bigger favorite to get the 2nd with Milan desperately dropping back and being conservative. So, playing this match with the normal 4-3-3 makes sense because you don't allow Milan to attack at three with the two goal cushion early on. Remember Milan aren't under major pressure until the lead gets within a goal. In addition if they would have played 3-3-4 more then it would make sense, but they haven't done that outside of some late game situations.
Should the match get into the 50th minute with Barca still needing two, or even worse, three goals then the fourth attacker should be brought on and throw caution to the wind because there is no tomorrow if you lose.
I've been up in arms about the following starting 11 for the last few weeks. I think it's part of the trends that have lead to Barca's bad form because of the way teams can defend against it. I will be sick if this is the lineup named for the match;
Messi
Inesta
Pedro
Cesc
Xavi
Sergio
Alves
Puyol
Pique
Alba
Valdes
I have no problems at the back or with the keeper, but I take issue with front line and how it effects the midfield. Since Barca switches around a lot Cesc and Inesta are really always trading places, but neither poses a true striking threat. Yes they can score goals, but they are not true strikers. Inesta's midfield presence is lost and Xavi is a little less effective in this set. Xavi played against Milan hurt in the previous match. It also appeared that way in the Copa. I respect that he got himself back for both matches, but I have been critical of Barca letting him go out there when his passing lacked snap and connectivity. He was pushed back and with no Inesta to flank him and he was out worked in midfield by Milan and Real.
I think it's always really tough for Barca to sit Xavi. He was clearly hurt at the same point in the season last year and his passes were coming up 2 feet short of their intended targets. When pundits have pointed out that Milan and Real Madrid looked like the hungrier team the most glaring example of this was Xavi getting stuck high up the pitch and being out worked for the ball. He's one of the all time greats and probably the greatest midfielder of all time, at worst of his generation, but when he's off form in such a pivotal position he can really hurt the Barca attack and allow for a lot of counters. I'm sure it's very difficult for the Barca's management team to sit him, but if he's not healthy he shouldn't be picked for this weeks match.
The problems that Inesta/Cesc upfront and Xavi playing hurt are not limited their personal performances. They effect Messi's ability to get the ball in dangerous spaces. I think teams have decided well let's not let Messi beat us and sell out defensively and force these other guys to do something. Messi has been getting the ball on his wrong foot a lot with four defenders ready within a foot of him. On his better foot he can't get the ball at all since the left side defenders aren't as worried about Cesc and Inesta. He's also spending a lot of time up around the center circle. I think he's doing this just so that he can get some touches going, but should that every really happen when you have Sergio, Xavi and Inesta playing behind you? I point to Inesta playing upfront and his presence being missed behind Messi. The bottom line is whether I'm right or not about the tactics teams are using, it's simply easier to defend Messi when he's not flanked on both sides by natural goals scoring threats.
My last gripe with this lineup is the form of Pedro. If you really pay close attention to Barca and Real Madrid you would know that Pedro's missed chance in the Copa Del Rey first leg could partially be the reason that Real Madrid got through in the UCL. (Not just the worst red card in a big match I've ever see.) In the world of what if's this is how it played out. Barca got the opening goal in the first leg of the Copa and Real Madrid sold out to try to get the tying goal. Barca sat back a little and actually became the counter attacking team. Real allowed huge long balls and long runs for Barca. With Barca still up Pedro got the best chance of all getting one on one with the keeper. Messi was dashing down the middle, but this was clearly Pedro's shot to take. He took it and missed by a wide margin on what was basically a glorified tap in. As bad as Villa's miss against Depor. Real got their tying goal and the rest is history.
I contend if he scores there the Copa is over. Barca leave with at worst 2 away goals, but probably even better a mentally distraught Real Madrid in their wake who has just lost at home. Real probably folds up against Barca in the next leg and then are too mentally worn down to handle Old Trafford. Didn't Real look extra confident coming off two wins over Barca on Tuesday? Beating Barca spurred them on to turn around what has been a disappointing season thus far.
In any event Pedro hasn't done a lot of scoring lately, but his early season form has seen him picked over the struggling Alexis and an unhappy David Villa. Villa was injured for the last leg, so he wasn't an option anyway. For me he's off form at least from a goal scoring standpoint. He's just not sharp with his finishing and it makes it easier for teams to defend against Messi.
So, what 11 should Barca go with? A lot depends on fitness, but I believe ultimately Barca has to put a lineup out their that gives them the best chance to win by 3 goals or more. Here's my 11;
Upfront
Messi
Villa
Alexis
Pedro has to sit for my above stated reason. He's not scoring goals right now. Villa is a goal scorer. Despite his bad game against Depor he's still one of the best goal scores of all time and his shot making ability should help to keep Milan a little more honest in a lot of ways. Getting to play in that Depor game is only going to help his form. Alexis had his best game in a Barca shirt since the Real league away leg all the way back in 2011 against Depor. That was a long time ago. His willingness to pass the ball this season in some spots and his pace should again keep Milan more honest. Also he's physically stronger than Pedro something that counts against a good defending Italian side. Tello looked very rusty to me yesterday, again he needed that match like Villa. This is a symptom of not seeing the pitch enough and being young and inexperienced. I wouldn't mind seeing him start, but just off form I have to favor Alexis and Villa for experience.
Midfield
Inesta
Xavi/Thiago
Sergio
If Inesta is playing in the midfield life will be better for Messi. It will also help the rest of the midfield and give them some space because I think Milan will back off a few feet fearing that could get ripped up more if they don't. Xavi plays if he is healthy, and by that I mean 80% fit at least. If not Thiago did enough to impress me yesterday that he should see his first big match start. He isn't as polished as Xavi or Cesc by a wide margin, but he gives them the pace and passing ability to score goals. It was tough for me to pick Thiago over Cesc, but I preferred Cesc as a super sub in this game. Sergio is a no brainer.
Backline
Valdes
Alba
Pique
Puyol
Alves
Valdes is still our best keeper. Alba is a better scoring option then Adrianno on that side. Adrianno does better when he starts on the other side, but Alves had a man of the match performance and also tends to be the one creating the width on the right side. Isn't it amazing how much Alves has the ball on the right near the box for crosses. It's as much as Tello and Villa do when they start on the right. Strange that Pedro rarely gets the ball in this position.
Puyol started Saturday, but should still start Tuesday. His leadership cannot be under valued. I thought he played a gutty game in the first leg. He seemed to be the only hungry player we had on the pitch. You always want your inspirational leader out there. From an attacking standpoint Javier gives you the ability to get the ball up the pitch too, but I'll favor Puyol.
The subs will be dependent on how the match plays out, but if things go bad it's pretty easy to me. In no order in particular. Cesc for Thiago. Pedro for Villa and Tello for Puyol. If I'm looking for goals Tello is my first move. The important thing here is the subs can't be Tello for Villa. Barca has to sell out if they make these changes. Honestly anyone that can score should not leave the pitch unless Barca gets up 3-0. Then Cesc for Thiago for experience and poise. You don't want Thiago losing his focus. Pedro for Villa so Pedro can run himself into the ground chasing the ball and making life miserable for the Milan midfield. Finally, Song for Alexis to build a brick wall in the midfield.
This is a blog about the lineup, but here are my other key factors that play in Barca's favor.
- The pitch will not be the same cabbage patch of the San Siro. This gave Milan an edge because they played huge long balls in the air that the pitch couldn't effect. It slowed the Barca attack, caused a lot of passes to get picked off and made it a grinders game. At the Nou Camp the pitch will be slick and fast. Milan will still have their counters, but the ball will be moving back at them much faster leaving space for Barca and tiring out Milan. Just ask Real Madrid about it.
- Barca will almost certainly win. They have lost 3 of their last 5 matches. The stats say that they are not likely to lose this one, but will they win by enough?
- All the factors that made everyone say that Milan are a walk over for Barca are still there. Boetang is not that good and could lose his cool. They are young in a lot of spots and that don't come close to matching Barca player for player. Milan are in good form, but they lack the experience and the pure class to hang with Barca on paper. I think we will start to see that Tuesday.
- Milan are favorites to advance over Barca. They aren't the underdogs, but they also feel pretty good about where they stand. They are going to come in confident, but being the big favorite may play against them. Chelsea were not perceived to be big favorites when they came to the Nou Camp. They stayed focused and won. Milan are not Chelsea and may panic should they fall a goal down and if the match goes even on aggregate I think they are likely to crack mentally. I can see Boetang getting sent off. I don't even have a crystal ball and I can see that.
- It's at the Nou Camp. The speed of the pitch is one thing, but if Barca score a goal the place will rock. There is a reason Barca rarely loses there and its the fans as the 12th man. Sure Real went there and got a big win, but in that game it was a pick'em. In this one Milan are the target and there's even more at stake. I wouldn't want to be a Milan player if Barca score first and early.
In any event I can't wait. Win or lose it should be a big time drama. Can't wait to watch and I hope whatever lineup it is rises to the challenge.
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