Saturday, April 27, 2013

The Best League Banter

With no English teams in the final 8 of the UCL and the Germans taking major leads in the two semi ties over the Spanish giants the best league in the world talk has really fired up this past week.  Many are tipping Germany as the best league in the world now.  Some are saying Spain, but a mass majority probably believe it's still the EPL.

Let me be the first to inform you it is for sure not Germany.  As evidenced by the Gotze move to Bayern this week and the possible Lewandoski move to Bayern.  I would put this on par with Inesta and Messi packing their bags and moving to Real Madrid next season right before a Classico match.  Real would do it in a heart beat, but Barcelona and the players would laugh at the notion.  The players are happy both emotionally and financially at Barca, but add on to that those two clubs rarely do business with each other.  They are in competition!!!

Dortmund and Bayern are openly doing business.  It's apparent that Dortmund can't keep it's players loyal or pay them enough.  If Gotze and Lewandowski were in anyway loyal I would think they would respect their current club enough to put off such dealings until after the completion of the UCL where they will likely meet in the final.  They have put their coach in a very bad position should the German final happen.  The game could be marred if Gotze botches anything up.  Could he really be picked to take a penalty for Dortmund?

It's also clear that Dortmund can't financially appease either player.  Dortmund is on the doorstep of the UCL final the biggest prize in Euro soccer and they had won the last two leagues.  You often here about players leaving clubs to get the UCL experience and win more trophies, but that sure isn't the case in Dortmund.  With both players possibly moving to Bayern in their own league it's pretty obvious it's for a better pay check.  Every player has a right to that, but it's a sad state of affairs.

With the German league officials pretty much unable to do anything about it Bayern Munich is poaching the best players from the league's second best side and therefore sucking the depth right out of the league itself.  How can a league get better under these circumstances?  It's not possible and it's pretty much why the best league talk is kind of silly.  The financial situations of teams within the league dictate how good the league will be because in the long run the best players will head to the teams with the most money and exposure.  When the league is dominated by one team financially, as in the case of Bayern, you have a league that can't get better.

Still for sake of spurring on the conversation here's how I rank the top 5 leagues in Europe.

France is number 5 in my view.  They have a power house team that is developing quickly and will be a force in the UCL for the next few years.  There are some sides like Lyon and Mariselle that have been pretty good, but there is very little star power in France.  Many top talents have moved to England and Spain.  Lyon has been a story of money management and great player selection, but have struggled as of late to make any dents in the UCL.  France has produced some great players, but as of late there is nothing remarkable about their style or player production.  With only one legit UCL threat they are a solid fifth.

Germany ranks fourth in my mind.  People are going to have a big problem with that.  They have the world's best team in Bayern at the moment, but Munich hasn't won the UCL in a long time and lost the last two leagues.  As stated above Dortmund are sellers and they are the second best team. The next two teams are Schalke and Leverkusen are also major sellers who have had some decent results in Europe, but haven't brought home any trophies.  Being an 18 team league means you have two fewer sides and that helps the Munich's of the world stay fresh especially when compared to the grueling English schedule and the two legged league cup in Spain.  The style has been really impressive in Germany, but the net result is no UCL titles and no Europa titles in the past few years, so who can this league be best?  They are likely to lock up the UCL and help their resume, but with Dortmund falling apart it's going to be a one team league for sure next season.  How can a one team league be better than a league with multiple teams that can contend for the league title and UCL every season?

Which is why I have the Italians 3rd.  The Italians have had three sides over the past 6 years win the league.  First we had the Inter era, and the AC had some dominance, and now Juventas has surged up winning what looks to be back to back titles and a good showing in the UCL.  Napoli are going to finish second in the league this season.  They did well last year in the UCL.  I would agree they aren't favored to do anything major in the UCL next season, but they show the depth of the league.  There are a lot of teams like Fiorentina and Roma that also have good global recognition and have threatened to be better.  This is not a one or two team league like Spain or Germany.  The style is a bit boring, but effective and the national team usually does very well recently finishing second in Euro 2012.  The financial situation of Italy has hurt a lot of teams. Fan attendance can be spotty even for the best teams.  It hasn't helped that their has been match fixing, but all and all the Serie A has more depth and three teams that could win the UCL.  The previous two leagues going forward next season will probably only have one each.  One sneaking thing to remember about the Italian league is they are keeping a majority of the best Italian players in their league despite the financial situation.

The Spaniards come in a close second.  Barcelona have been the most consistent side in the world the last few years. Winning 2 UCL's and making 6 straight semis combined with 4 of the last 6 league titles.  Over the past 6 years they are the best team in the world and the 10-11 side might have been the best of all time.  Real Madrid have been a force the last two years.  Deep runs in the UCL and they have grabbed 2 league titles in 6 years.  These two clubs have been tipped back and fourth as the best side in the world with 10 of the most recent fifa 11 coming from them and the 11th player coming from Aletico Madrid.  Aletico have won the Europa league twice in recent memory.  Last season Spain had 3 of the final four Europa participants and 2 of the UCL semi finalist with Barca and Real who repeated the feat this year.  Internationally Spain is considered possibly the greatest team in the history of world football.  A 2014 world cup title will make that inarguable.

So what are the flaws?  The league is very top heavy.  Barca and Real suck up most of the stars and many top Spanish players have gone to other leagues.  The financial situation of the country has hurt teams like Malaga, Aletico, and Valencia who could be threats in the UCL.  That being said only Barca and Real could be considered as a UCL winner, but often they are the favorites to win the competition.  As it stands today Bayern are the best side in the world, but Real and Barca have the resources to grab the players to catch up or pass them quickly.  If it came down to style the Spaniards would be tops, but another another factor is that they have a poor second division where the relegated teams have to face off with Barcelona and Real's B teams!

And then there is England.  England will always get a lot of love because it is the birth place of football.  That is a charm that will never fade.  I have it first by a small margin over La Liga for a few reasons.  The finances are better because the league has a wider appeal than the Spanish La Liga and the country is in better shape.  Attendance is very strong.  Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United have all recently won the UCL, but not only that Man U and Chelsea played for the final.  Arsenal, Man U, Man City, and Chelsea are all capable of winning the UCL with Spurs and Liverpool just a few players away, but it's that depth that makes the league so great.  The second division has teams that could cause problems for other leagues first division sides.  Therefore from top to bottom the league is usually not very soft with fresh teams like Norwich and Swansea coming up and staying up.  Swansea won a league cup this season to top it off.  The style is a bit mixed with so many different teams playing differently, but it helps to make the league more lively and unpredictable.  The top teams often are upset by the lower sides.  The amount of points needed to win the league is usually more reasonable as compared to Barcelona and Real both breaking 100 the last two seasons to win their league crowns.

There are still quite a few downsides that have almost pulled the league below Spain.  The English players are not sought after to play in other leagues.  Most of the top teams have an international player as their feature players.  Chelsea has Torres or Ba.  Man U had RVP.  Man City has Tevez, and Aguerro.  The list goes on and on.  The quality of play of the teams is often not that good, because they are so thrown together.  Man City are the greatest example of this with players from various countries put together with no common style and Italian coach.  It's like All-star teams that can play amazing one night and seem totally out of sink the next night.  Due to the standards being so high teams are often quick to buy and sell players before a team can jell.  The recent trend this season was to sack your manager during the season.  This doesn't always equal the best looking product on the field and English sides are rarely favored over powerhouses from the other leagues because of it.  The English media overreacts to every result and the clubs seem to buy into what is being said to a fault.  In a recent UCL match Man U sat Wayne Rooney as a tactical decision that appeared to be 100% correct.  The media latched on to the story and have rumored him as being out with the club because of it, this despite that fact that he is having one of his best statistical years.  England has the reputation of playing hard knocking traditional football, but the style seems a bit dated and really hasn't helped them in Europe.  Adapting to new styles has been tough since the roster and manager changes happen so quickly.  The national team has had spotty success for various reasons.

One flaw that I really take issue with, but I'm not so sure that it's the biggest is the heavy schedule teams most take on.  There are two cups in English football that have been around forever.  The League and the FA.  They are both very traditional.  England uses a very outdated replay system where if two teams draw they replay each other again at a later date.  This creates absolute havoc on a sides schedule.  Chelsea are on pace to play a record number of games, but haven't taken home a single trophy to show for it and may not be in the UCL next season.  The amount of Cup games, whether sides take them seriously or not, forces the EPL to play through Christmas with no break.  Compare this to the Germans who get a huge break over the winter and avoid playing in some of the worst weather.  They also play four less league games and have one off legs for their cup.  The FA refuses to do anything about it and frankly is a mistake.

Changing this cup situation to me would solve a lot of problems for the English sides and make them even better in Europe and perhaps untouchable as a league.  The fixes are pretty straight forward.  They can combine the cups into one competition.  That would make the most sense, but traditionalist might freak out.  The second solution, which I think has to happen is for both competitions to simply embrace one off legs that end in penalties if undecided.  This way at least clubs would know when they would play next and how games would be scheduled.  It would also chop about 4 to 5 unnecessary matches from the top sides.

With England having room for improvement I think it's clear they will be the top league for years to come.  The only chance Spain has of knocking them off in the near future is to combine with Portugal to ease the financial problem and bring in some more competitive teams.  Lisbon, Braga and Benfica would all make the league more competitive and would probably get even better because of the financial benefits of the combine league.  Decent sides would be forced to play down and make the second division way more competitive and force the B teams out.  This would hurt Barca and Real who would probably try to stand against this, but ultimately the health of the entire league comes first.

As it stand England is tops.  The Germans have the best team now, but that doesn't make them the best league.  The Spanish need to solve their financial problems.  The Italians need to do the same. The French need to find another PSG and globally brand themselves better.




Sunday, April 21, 2013

Ups and Down a Premier League Story

After Spurs signature win today I felt the urge to recap what has been an up and down year for the EPL.  Certain teams seem to be breaking through and it's setting the stage for another interesting summer and maybe a season for the ages.

This season will be remembered in my opinion as a transition year.  It will have a black eye for the goofy coaching changes that occurred along the way.  I worry that success by Southampton and Sunderland after their changes will encourage this behavior in the future.

Here's how I viewed each team from the bottom up as we stand today.

Reading canned their manager and hired the manager from Southampton who had been canned.  That's not a good resume builder for Adkins, but at least Southampton will stay up and he won't be responsible for dragging both teams down.  In reality he was unjustly fired and didn't have a chance to save Reading who was already on life support.

QPR are the LA Lakers of the EPL.  They aren't that loaded with talent, but boy did they try to be.  This team wasn't built right.  I always felt like they were grasping at star power instead of key position players.  They too fired their coach, and this was the one that I agreed with.  Mark Hughes needs anger management.  Harry tried his best, but he needed a training camp or a winter break (huge EPL flaw) to get things turned around.

Wigan may stay up, but it has to be frustrating to be a Wigan fan.  Martinez looks like he's heading for greener pastures every summer and the team hangs on to it's EPL spot by a thread.  This just isn't healthy.

Aston Villa had a run of poor play that had me question if they could compete in the MLS.  Thankfully for them they were able to stop the bleeding.  I think a big part of the reason was not letting go of Lambert and giving him time.  This side just has no fire power and no defense.  How that translates into anything is beyond me.  They will be fighting for their lives until the bitter end.

Newcastle went from competing for a UCL spot to taking the slip and slide to the bottom of the table.  I started to worry for Pardew as right after he signed his huge extenstion the season fell apart.  Letting Ba go was questionable and brought them so little in return it was embarrassing.  I have to remember he has a bad knee that could end his career at anytime, but it added insult to injury for sure.  I don't think they will go down, but if they were too it could spell disaster for the club both financially and emotionally.  They might end up in the third division in a few years.

Stoke just do what they do.  They stay out of the headlines and stay mid pack.  They are close to the bottom, but you figure they will earn enough to stay up.

Sunderland went from stable and ok to threatening to hit the bottom.  I thought O'neil's termination was ill fated especially considering they hired Di Cano, but they have some life and look safe to stay up.  What the future holds is anyone's guess, but I don't see Di Cano hanging in longer than a year or so.  I can't wait to read all the stories after he loses a few.  The English press will have a field day.

Norwich have done enough to stay around and never have really threatened for the top or bottom.  I just have to wonder if Lambert isn't kicking himself for not sticking around.  He will be if Villa fall.  Still it's harsh to play Monday morning QB on that situation.  Norwich had some good results, but Villa as side would have always been tagged to do better.  Really no difference between 16th and 13th if you think about it.

Southampton were the side I was most disappointed in after the firing of Adkins, but they seemed to know what they were doing.  The side stabilized quickly after and were never in danger of the drop after the very slow start.  This will probably have many boards considering mid-season changes that I think are almost always the wrong move unless Mark Hughes is your manager.

Fulham are the most annoying team in the league.  I would rather be a QPR fan.  Fulham love to draw games.  They are the best in world at it.  I won't watch a Fulham match unless it was at gunpoint.

West Ham had a great season in their return to the Prem.  Big Sam got some big wins that kept them out of any trouble, but I think this is about the best they can achieve.  They will benefit from the new TV deal for certain, but will the new Stadium be a blessing or a curse?  At the end of the day Andy Carroll isn't the answer to anyone's problems.  Unless you are looking for a great party!

Swansea and WBA make up the two biggest let downs for me.  Both sides started strong, which insured they would have no trouble staying up, but they stumbled mid season and haven't been able to stay consistent.  Swansea got some hardware winning the league cup, but they will be pressured to keep Michu who they stole from Rayo for peanuts.  If the big dollars come calling I think they will crack.  There coach has done enough to have him rumored with Real Madrid.  (That's almost exactly like coaching for Chelsea if you think about it.  Both sides have fired UCL winning coaches the season after)  WBA needs a marquee goal scorer and they may be able to break through.  Credit the current coach and big Roy for leaving this side in good shape.  I just wish these sides hadn't run out of gas in the new year.

I give Liverpool a lot of credit.  I think the ownership group knew that this was going to be a project.  The landscape of football is changing and Liverpool want to change with it.  The similar style conversion in Arsenal has stalled and failed to bring trophies, but that has a lot to do with management not the style.  The Boston group see what's happening in Barcelona and want to embrace that.  Rodgers is an manager that wants the same vision and style.  Liverpool's slow start and lack of strikers early made getting into a Europe a tough proposition.  They are just a player or two away from being very dangerous.  If they can keep Saurez in check and stick to the plan I think they will be a game changer in the EPL next season.  Perhaps missing Europa will be a boost for them.

If Everton were going to get over the hump this was the season.  Chelsea, Liverpool, and Arsenal were all off form at some point.  There was a spot to be had, but the other draw happy EPL side just lacked the goal scoring and couldn't notch those wins against the bigger clubs.  They did well  for the most part and might find themselves in Europe, but this was their big chance.  Funny that David Moyes is being questioned while having one of his best seasons there.

Spurs are having a revival year.  Dropping Modric hasn't hurt them at all.  Dempsey hasn't been great, but he has given them big goals in big games.  Bale has broke the ceiling.  He's not the best player in the EPL, but he has proven he can score big goals and might have a bigger upside than first thought.  I think key to his success has been the amount of attacking talent and the right coach who knows how to use him.  AVB has come to Spurs and made them look much more dangerous. They have scored big wins over big sides.  The win over Man City was mega impressive considering they were trailing and City has been in really good form lately.  If they can keep Bale one more season Spurs could contend for league and the UCL, but they need a spot.  Chelsea or Arsenal will have to be put to the side.  It's the best story in the EPL left to finish.  AVB did what Chelsea wanted him to do for them.  Make them a fast passing slick team.  The difference his club supported him in doing it.  The results are encouraging.

Chelsea have played in more competitions than any side in the history of the world or at least in recent memory.  They are deep and needed to be deep this year.  Their first major mistake was firing Di Matteo early on.  It was one of the biggest blunders in ownership history.  I'm going to blog on the year that was and save my thoughts for now, but in a nutshell Chelsea have fallen just short over and over again.  They've played so many games this year they have everyone seeing blue.  I just think they will falter and end up fifth.  At that point who do you fire with the coach already leaving???

Arsenal are in third 5 points back of City who hold a game in hand on them.  Arsene Wegner is a magician.  People need to realize something.  They point to the system and say it doesn't work in the EPL and the coach needs to go.  The real reason they can't get over the hump is that they can't afford to keep everyone and they are hoping they are just rich enough to take advantage of financial fair play to stop losing future talents.  Early on you had to feel losing RVP was killing them, but RVP has disappeared as of late and was a non factor against Real Madrid.  Hmmmmm, starting to wonder if they didn't make the right move, but I know if he had stayed they could have won the league and the UCL this year.  Scary that he was there the entire preseason.  Ultimately the right move may have been just to keep him and lose him for nothing.  Could have broke the trophy drought.

Man City look like the best team in England this season at times, but they haven been a little snake bitten.  They've had the opposite luck of last year.  Losing key players to injury at the worst times and catching a UCL group that included the German Champions, the English Champions, and the La Liga Champions.  The three best leagues in Europe with Ajax mixed in for fun.  It was the super group of death.  Still haven't figured out how the UCL pulled that one off.  It's tough to be hard on them for not getting through there.  Balotelli needed to go and they got some of their money back, but they still have some house cleaning to do this summer.  Nasir has to go.  For City this off season will need to be addition by subtraction.  The FA Cup would be a nice consolation prize for the ex-champs.

Man United proved this season that a good early start in league play makes all the difference.  This is the blue print for success in the UCL and League.  If you can draw a safe UCL group, unlike Man City, you can basically focus all your energy on the league and heavily rotate your side.  United lost some games in the first half, but they almost never had a long stumble and they crushed the weaker competition.  Once they got ahead they stayed ahead and were able to focus on the UCL.  They got hard done there, but lately they seem to have run out of gas.  They spilled a game back to Chelsea in the FA Cup and lost replay a few weeks later.  They got beat at home by City, but the foundation of a big lead have them ready to clinch tomorrow.  To me City is a better side right now and Man U are hardly a favorite against any of the top 5 sides in the league right now.  RVP has gone flat after the super start and the rumors around Rooney aren't helping either.  I wonder if this will be the off season where Sir Alex stops buying strikers and starts grabbing quality midfielders.  He will find that it's much easier to score goals when you can give good service to all that talent upfront.  Yet, I feel he will spend most of the season romancing CR7 while patting Rooney on the back as he's pushed out the door.

This season has not been the best for the EPL, but with a bigger TV deal in place for next year the league should not be down for long.  Some of La Liga's best are heavily rumored to be moving with Falcao headed to the EPL and CR7 having question marks surrounding him.  They are already fighting over the best Dortmund has to offer.  This upcoming season reminds me of the NBA the year after Lebron went to the Heat.  So many storylines and something has got to give.

I hate to say it, but the FA needs combine the League Cup and the FA Cup.  I know it would break tradition, but it's killing the league.  England perhaps has the worst weather to deal with in the winter and they are the one league that is playing fixtures with no break.  While the Germans, Spanish, and Italians rest up for the UCL.  I can't see them doing it, but it needs to happen.  That or the top EPL sides need to get even more conservative with the sides they put out for the League Cup and treat it like it isn't important.

Onward and upward.