Response was too long for a tweet. I realize they do these rating systems. I get all that, but I look at it like this. What leagues can produce the most possible winners of the UCL next year?
EPL 4 Chelsea, Man City, Man U, and Arsenal. Gunners add two legit players they are dangerous.
La Liga 2 for sure, Barca and Real Madrid. Aletitco outside chance, but I wouldn't bet $2 bucks on it.
Italy 2, but maybe more AC Milan, Juvie. Milan has a young core that got great experience this year. Now they have Balo who kept his head, for the most part, for all competitions. Juvie just need one more striker. Lorente won't be enough.
Germany 1! Dortmund is a seller. Bayern could sell Robben and still be the favorite.
France 1 PSG, but if they lose there coach ouch. Ibra has a short life cycle anywhere.
Dutch League. Really? Zero.
Portuguese Really? Zero
So when I do the eye test that's what I see. I see the EPL providing chances for teams to turn the corner. I see some of it in La Liga, but not enough with Altetico and Malaga struggling to keep it together. If Arsenal fans are mad at their team they should count themselves lucky. Being a Valencia fan most be torture. Always selling to Barca and in financial ruin.
I'm a realist when it comes to Italy. Florentina, Roma, Udinese, Lazio and Napoli will never be good enough to win in Europe. Inter could turn around, but it's a ways off. Yet all those teams get some recognition and are usually decent. It's a big reason why you have to say the league is better than Germany. One superstar could turn the fortunes of those teams. Maybe better attendance too.
Also understand I'm not even a huge fan of the EPL. I'm a Barca/La Liga lover, but I can't make the argument that they are the best league because they had back to back winners at 100 and it doesn't look like anyone is financially strong enough to pass those two. You need at least 3 teams that could legit win a league for it to be the best league.
I took a big issue with the German league because it's so heavily tilted towards Bayern. Dortmund won the league two years running so what did Bayern do? They bought their stars, beat them at every turn and set them back a few years. Dortmund's fans deserve better. I think people got confused because those teams made it to the Final and Bayern are the best team going right now, but past them the league is very weak.
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Lebron Turning a Corner
Many will point to Lebron's game 1 layup against the Pacers as proof positive that he is now fully on another level and ready to win many championships for years to come. What I thought was far more important was how he handled the result of making that layup. His celebration, or lack thereof was, proof to me that Lebron may have turned the corner.
A few months ago in a close game Lebron made a jump shot to put the Heat over the top for the win. The opposing team called a timeout. As the network went to break they showed the replay of Lebron reacting to the made basket. He was doing this high step push down motion. It was some sort of dance move that I could never pull off or would try. It made me think to myself what is wrong with this guy. Why are you acting like you have never made a jump shot before. It was like an excuse to not like the Heat or Lebron. Like we needed anymore.
Yet last night Lebron handled himself as well as Barry Sanders used too. For those of you who don't know what I mean by that, Sanders was a fantastic running back for the Detroit Lions in the 90's. He would never celebrate big runs or touchdowns, because his ultimate goal was to win the Superbowl and only that was worth celebrating. When he scored even some of the most amazing touchdowns he would simply flip the ball to the referee and return to his sideline. This is clearly a lesson most NBA players need to learn. (See the Clippers over reaction to dunks from the 2012-13 season.)
Lebron didn't celebrate or even smile after making the game winning layup. Let's face it he really had every right too. With Wade fouled out of the game and only 2.2 seconds left Miami would probably do all they could to get Lebron the ball. Lebron was able to use his power and speed to get free and blow by a pretty good defender with ease to get himself an open layup at the rim with .5 seconds to spare. It was made all the more impressive considering he pulled this off in an overtime at the end of a very long and hard game.
Lebron had every right to catch D Wade in mid air and shake him like a rag doll. He had every right to jump into the air and shoulder bump Mike Miller. (Probably the most action Miller will see all playoffs.) He had every right to high five the entire front row and maybe even power press Norris Cole into the screaming crowd. I don't think anyone would have woken up today and been like Lebron shouldn't have done any of that.
Instead Lebron ignored D Wade who jumped into him like they had just won the title. He didn't pay any mind to Mike Miller who looked like a kid on Christmas morning. Instead he just walked casually walked over to Craig Saeger, gave a composed and positive post game interview, and headed into the locker room.
Maybe Lebron realized a few things and as I write this I want to believe he did. First that a Championship has not yet been won. Second that Miami are starting to show the signs of a team that is not playing it's best basketball. Third that there are still 7 more wins needed to get that title and this was one game that they should have won handily at home.
Imagine a world where the Heat lose in the Finals this year. For Miami it would be a massive failure and it would start to raise questions about their franchise that they are hoping to dodge. If Miami loses they will take a lot of HEAT for failing to win in a year where the competition was not at it's best. Kobe and the Lakers out in round one mainly because of Kobe's injury. Parker and Manu have both battled for fitness down the stretch for the Spurs. The Grizzles are without Rudy Gay. The Pacers are without Danny Granger. OKC traded Harden and the lost Westbrook to injury. All the while the worst injury news for the Heat has been the knee of D Wade, which he has always proven to get over in the end.
Miami must win the Championship and perhaps Lebron realizing this wanted his team to stay focused and not overreact to that one win and respect the fact that the Pacers almost stole game one in their building. Let me lavish you with a few likely scenarios should the Heat fail to win the title this season. Everyone will be calling for Spoelstra's head. I still can't determine if he is a good coach or not, but I'm leaning to just average. The Heat will have to consider what to do with some of the aging players sooner rather than later. D Wade will come under major scrutiny and Lebron will be the media target. The pressure on Miami will be again turned all the way up to 2011 standards.
Despite a bench of all-stars, a huge break at the end of the season to rest, and a lack of key injuries the Heat have played spotty basketball in their last few games. As a Bulls fan I was very proud of the effort the Bulls gave and I was ultra impressed with their performance, but should it have been that close? Games 1, 3, and 5 all could have gone either way and 2 of them were in Miami. The Heat got the job done, but no one can argue that they should have blow the Bulls out in probably all of those games and won handily. They did not do that and remember this Bulls team didn't have 3 major players including their two best scoring options.
I think the media and the pundits missed the fact that the Heat have been playing bad basketball since game 1 of the Bulls series. I notice a couple factors that are contributing to this. D Wade has not been himself lately. He's playing well in spurts, but it's almost like he's trying to save himself at times. Udonis Haslem is a shadow of himself. Age may have finally caught up to him, but thankfully the Birdman has filled the void he has left. Rashard Lewis is basically not playing very much or contributing all that much when he does. Mike Miller hasn't played in the last 5 games or made a three that I can even remember these playoffs. Maybe most important is Chalmers seems to be off his game and Norris Cole is seeing more of the court because of it. I think Super Mario does a little more than Cole on both ends of the floor, but I don't discount Cole's abilities.
Still the Heat have Chris Bosh and Lebron in their primes. When you have those two players you can will yourself over teams as they did against the Pacers in game 1. The Heat played from behind for 3 quarters and in winning time found themselves ahead. The Pacers made a three to send it into over time and when the chips were down with a minute to go Bosh made a huge rebound and layup where he was fouled. This tied the game and then Lebron scored the final two baskets by sheer force of will. You have to wonder if a healthy Granger would have made a difference last night against a Miami team with so many players not at their best. This Heat team is not playing well, but the competition is so soft they are still winning in spite of their short comings.
I also feel like Lebron has learned one thing from all those years of failure is that one game does not a championship make. If the Pacers win game 2 does it matter that the Heat won game 1? I say no because if the Pacers won game 1 there was no way they were winning game 2 for many reasons. The statistics dictate that rarely does a lower seed beat a higher seed 2 games in a row at home. The Heat would be on a mission in game 2 and would look to defuse the doubters who would be in full effect in the wake of a lose. Finally the NBA would never allow that to happen as they are already worried about an all small market finals. (Wait did I just write that?) If the Pacers win game 2 it's there best hope of somehow pulling out this series and I have no reason to believe they won't play better and the Heat will have to get a better performance from their "others."
I really want to hope that Lebron gets it and for good reasons he didn't act like a crazed fool after making a layup in overtime of game they should have won by many points. Let's just hope that he continues on this path and that he can endear himself as one of the all time greats by celebrating championships not dunks.
A few months ago in a close game Lebron made a jump shot to put the Heat over the top for the win. The opposing team called a timeout. As the network went to break they showed the replay of Lebron reacting to the made basket. He was doing this high step push down motion. It was some sort of dance move that I could never pull off or would try. It made me think to myself what is wrong with this guy. Why are you acting like you have never made a jump shot before. It was like an excuse to not like the Heat or Lebron. Like we needed anymore.
Yet last night Lebron handled himself as well as Barry Sanders used too. For those of you who don't know what I mean by that, Sanders was a fantastic running back for the Detroit Lions in the 90's. He would never celebrate big runs or touchdowns, because his ultimate goal was to win the Superbowl and only that was worth celebrating. When he scored even some of the most amazing touchdowns he would simply flip the ball to the referee and return to his sideline. This is clearly a lesson most NBA players need to learn. (See the Clippers over reaction to dunks from the 2012-13 season.)
Lebron didn't celebrate or even smile after making the game winning layup. Let's face it he really had every right too. With Wade fouled out of the game and only 2.2 seconds left Miami would probably do all they could to get Lebron the ball. Lebron was able to use his power and speed to get free and blow by a pretty good defender with ease to get himself an open layup at the rim with .5 seconds to spare. It was made all the more impressive considering he pulled this off in an overtime at the end of a very long and hard game.
Lebron had every right to catch D Wade in mid air and shake him like a rag doll. He had every right to jump into the air and shoulder bump Mike Miller. (Probably the most action Miller will see all playoffs.) He had every right to high five the entire front row and maybe even power press Norris Cole into the screaming crowd. I don't think anyone would have woken up today and been like Lebron shouldn't have done any of that.
Instead Lebron ignored D Wade who jumped into him like they had just won the title. He didn't pay any mind to Mike Miller who looked like a kid on Christmas morning. Instead he just walked casually walked over to Craig Saeger, gave a composed and positive post game interview, and headed into the locker room.
Maybe Lebron realized a few things and as I write this I want to believe he did. First that a Championship has not yet been won. Second that Miami are starting to show the signs of a team that is not playing it's best basketball. Third that there are still 7 more wins needed to get that title and this was one game that they should have won handily at home.
Imagine a world where the Heat lose in the Finals this year. For Miami it would be a massive failure and it would start to raise questions about their franchise that they are hoping to dodge. If Miami loses they will take a lot of HEAT for failing to win in a year where the competition was not at it's best. Kobe and the Lakers out in round one mainly because of Kobe's injury. Parker and Manu have both battled for fitness down the stretch for the Spurs. The Grizzles are without Rudy Gay. The Pacers are without Danny Granger. OKC traded Harden and the lost Westbrook to injury. All the while the worst injury news for the Heat has been the knee of D Wade, which he has always proven to get over in the end.
Miami must win the Championship and perhaps Lebron realizing this wanted his team to stay focused and not overreact to that one win and respect the fact that the Pacers almost stole game one in their building. Let me lavish you with a few likely scenarios should the Heat fail to win the title this season. Everyone will be calling for Spoelstra's head. I still can't determine if he is a good coach or not, but I'm leaning to just average. The Heat will have to consider what to do with some of the aging players sooner rather than later. D Wade will come under major scrutiny and Lebron will be the media target. The pressure on Miami will be again turned all the way up to 2011 standards.
Despite a bench of all-stars, a huge break at the end of the season to rest, and a lack of key injuries the Heat have played spotty basketball in their last few games. As a Bulls fan I was very proud of the effort the Bulls gave and I was ultra impressed with their performance, but should it have been that close? Games 1, 3, and 5 all could have gone either way and 2 of them were in Miami. The Heat got the job done, but no one can argue that they should have blow the Bulls out in probably all of those games and won handily. They did not do that and remember this Bulls team didn't have 3 major players including their two best scoring options.
I think the media and the pundits missed the fact that the Heat have been playing bad basketball since game 1 of the Bulls series. I notice a couple factors that are contributing to this. D Wade has not been himself lately. He's playing well in spurts, but it's almost like he's trying to save himself at times. Udonis Haslem is a shadow of himself. Age may have finally caught up to him, but thankfully the Birdman has filled the void he has left. Rashard Lewis is basically not playing very much or contributing all that much when he does. Mike Miller hasn't played in the last 5 games or made a three that I can even remember these playoffs. Maybe most important is Chalmers seems to be off his game and Norris Cole is seeing more of the court because of it. I think Super Mario does a little more than Cole on both ends of the floor, but I don't discount Cole's abilities.
Still the Heat have Chris Bosh and Lebron in their primes. When you have those two players you can will yourself over teams as they did against the Pacers in game 1. The Heat played from behind for 3 quarters and in winning time found themselves ahead. The Pacers made a three to send it into over time and when the chips were down with a minute to go Bosh made a huge rebound and layup where he was fouled. This tied the game and then Lebron scored the final two baskets by sheer force of will. You have to wonder if a healthy Granger would have made a difference last night against a Miami team with so many players not at their best. This Heat team is not playing well, but the competition is so soft they are still winning in spite of their short comings.
I also feel like Lebron has learned one thing from all those years of failure is that one game does not a championship make. If the Pacers win game 2 does it matter that the Heat won game 1? I say no because if the Pacers won game 1 there was no way they were winning game 2 for many reasons. The statistics dictate that rarely does a lower seed beat a higher seed 2 games in a row at home. The Heat would be on a mission in game 2 and would look to defuse the doubters who would be in full effect in the wake of a lose. Finally the NBA would never allow that to happen as they are already worried about an all small market finals. (Wait did I just write that?) If the Pacers win game 2 it's there best hope of somehow pulling out this series and I have no reason to believe they won't play better and the Heat will have to get a better performance from their "others."
I really want to hope that Lebron gets it and for good reasons he didn't act like a crazed fool after making a layup in overtime of game they should have won by many points. Let's just hope that he continues on this path and that he can endear himself as one of the all time greats by celebrating championships not dunks.
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Looking Forward to Next Year
With the EPL wrapping up today there is much to look forward to in the coming summer. It wasn't the best year for the EPL in Europe and the finish of the season was far less dramatic than last year. In all fairness last season was once in a lifetime. So after all the hiring and firing and boom or bust transfers we enter into the summer. I've already start formulating the six teams I think can contend if they make the right moves in the summer.
None of these names are a huge surprise, but the order to me makes sense, but might seem off to others.
6. Liverpool are as far as I will reach for an upset team winning the title. I know that's not saying much considering this side has never lifted the EPL title. I respect the commitment to turn the club around the right way. Building some young talent and then adding some stars around them and choosing a coach with an approach that is closer to the style of soccer that is more passing geared. Luis Saurez is the biggest question mark for this club. Do they keep him or not? They probably need to because they will be troubled to find a suitable replacement and they can't sell him for what he is really worth. I say gamble on him for one more season. The rumor was he wanted to leave, but I think his agent will know that he needs to rebuild his image by not forcing a transfer this year.
Sturridge paid off as a transfer and is finally living up to his potential. I wonder if he can keep it up, but for now they have to be happy with him. Coutinho is the attacking mid they were in need of. I believe they need one more striker, but they don't need a major superstar like Falcao. They need a savy vet who can give them some games in the cup matches allowing others to rest and come off the bench and be a threat when needed in the league. The league will be the priority next season, so I think this would be a great add. Also, I think the midfield could always be better. There's not a single team that couldn't afford to add a good midfielder, but again I think they would do well to grab a veteran that can fill minutes and trust in there current side.
There biggest need is at the back. They need a WC defender. Don't sleep on the fact that they had 14 clean sheets this year in league, which is really good, but you have to be even tighter when competing for an EPL title. Losing Carraghers leadership will be felt, so to me this is their biggest need. They also need to keep their keeper. They must supress Barca's advances should they come.
I feel that Europe is calling for Liverpool next season, which would be huge for them, but the title is a season off or so.
5. The Spurs are ahead of Liverpool in my mind because I think the Bale situation will have a positive impact on them either way. The cash in flow from selling Bale would be about as big as could be expected and AVB will have a lot of money to spend. I think they will let Addeboyor go who clearly has seen better days and look to bring in two solid strikers. I would think adding a Berbatov and a young striker around Defoe and Dempsey would be a good thing.
Where I think they really need to be deeper is on the back line. As with Liverpool you need the D to win in the EPL, so they will have to address that.
Should Bale stay then I think you just add to the back line find a young striker to put on your bench and assume you will be better because you should be. I just think he's gone. I fear Spurs are in for another 5th place finish though if that is the case. They will not be this season's New Castle.
4. Man City by all reports are going to be restricted on how much they can spend. I can't say that I really believe that, but I have noticed that they aren't linked to all that many big players this season. The problem I see for them is that Father Time is starting to catch up with them. Yaya and Tevez aren't the players they were last year, so how will they be next year? It sounds like Dzeko is leaving town and that would be really bad for them. They need the striker depth to compete in Europe and the EPL. The selling of Super Mario was a good and bad thing. It made it easier to play Dzeko and Tevez, but it exposed them should anyone leave. Tevez is never leaving, but the Dzeko rumors aren't good. I think City need to be smart about their purchases this year. Isco from Malaga would be a great a signing.
If Man City is truly not able to spend like in years past they would be wise to maintain their team and add young players. I think the Barca staff behind the scenes are thinking just that with bringing in a solid coach like Pellegrini. I think City are going to be very Arsenal like this coming season. They will be in Europe, but not have a chance at any point to win the title in league. This is a season of transition for them.
3. Arsenal has to spend money this year. I think they know it. They finished on fire winning 8 of 10 and drawing the other two. It shouldn't take much to improve this side, but just imagine if they buy a WC striker. What if they signed Wayne Rooney? With the Manchester's in transition next year shouldn't this be the year Arsenal sell out and go for the title?
I don't know who they need to add, but I know they need to maintain and add. Now is the time for Arsenal before everyone else recharges. If they can put a title up there and have a strong showing in the UCL players will be more willing to come there rather than run from them. I just can't stress enough you will never find this many challengers in tranistion. Arsenal need to act!!!
2. Man U have lost their icon. They acted quickly and swiftly to sign the very solid David Moyes to replace Ferguson. I liked the move. Sure it will be an adjustment for Moyes, but he's so logical it's not even funny and Ferguson will surely be behind the scenes.
Man U is a bit long in the tooth though. Vidic and Rio are a bit frail. They should do some duct tape commercials this summer. Giggs is way old, but I'm amazed by him still. RVP is up there and faded badly down the stretch this season. Still this team is not without young players. They probably could repeat without adding anyone special if they avoid key injuries, but I don't think they will stand pat. They have money to spend and they want to use it.
CR7 would be a great add for them, but that doesn't seem possible. Madrid would probably be asking too much and why buy an older player with only a few good years left when you can go young and buy Bale. RVP and Bale with Chicarito mixed in is dangerous to think about. From there I would just like to see Man U buy a solid holding midfielder. Luka Modric is not the solution to this, but there surely is someone they can get.
Man U is in a tricky position when selling players as evidenced with the Rooney situation. On one hand Rooney has been their best attacking player the past few seasons, but on the other hand he has struggled with fitness and an attitude. It's strange that he's asking out with Moyes coming in, or maybe it makes sense as he already forced his way out of Everton. Poor Man U can't find value for Wayne and that's the down side to being the bully on the block. They are also limited in their options of places to send him. It's always hard to sell problems. You always have to know that Sir Alex can get him turned around behind the scenes, but the drama will be a distraction they don't need in Moyes's first season.
1. Chelsea have set the table and they could be great. Think about it. Mata confident and in his prime. Cech is your keeper and your back up is a star at Altetico Madrid. Oscar has a solid year under his belt. Lampard gives you minutes and leadership. Terry will likley be more of a back up, but he gives you minutes. David Luiz didn't make as many blunders down the stretch. Cahill stayed heathly for you most of this year. You don't have to worry about the Club cup. You are the most likely place for Falcoa to go. Hazard hasn't reached his potential yet. You are super deep, and experienced. Real Madrid and Barca have more questions to answer than in recent seasons. PSG is losing there coach. Juventus will not sign a striker better than Lorente.
Bayern are the only side that you really have to be concerned with in Europe. If Bayern wins the UCL then it would setup a massive UEFA super cup, which could be a preview of bigger things down the road. With all those factors going Chelsea's way I think they are the favoirites for the EPL next year. They spent this season in transition and they will really benefit from it.
The X Factor is Jose Mo. Love him or hate him he imploded in his final season at real. He wasn't worth the 1 copa and 1 league title he earned for them. He might have done some major damage in the locker room that won't easily be repaired. He took major issue with the Captian of Spain and the team when he battled Iker Cassilas behind the scenes and it seems like a war that no one won. I think that Jose Mo could be a good boy for the first year or so, but with the potential that Chelsea has they may be better served looking elsewhere, but we will see.
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Messi Stats to Brighten your day
Ok, so Barcelona didn't win the Copa or the UCL this season, but they will win the league. Leo Messi was slowed a bit in the New Year and is likely not going to top last year's haul of 73, but still he's done some amazing things.
Currently he has scored in 21 straight games. A few of those games he has come on as a late sub, which makes it more than impressive. So, I wonder if could he finish this season by continuing the streak on to next year? I think 30 would be ultra impressive.
Messi has 46 League goals. Last year he set an all Euro league record with 50. He should score the 5 needed to break the record, but can he score 9 to get to 55? Would anyone ever touch 55? I bet no. I think he ends up with 52 though. He hasn't scored a hat trick in a while and Aletico and Malaga are on the slate. Two teams that won't making scoring easy.
Last season Messi scored 73 goals in 60 appearances. This season he has a chance to make 54 appearances. He needs to hit 64 goals to have a better goals to appearance differential. Pretty astounding since he did it in less games. I think he blows the doors off and scores 67. 1.25 goals per game average. Scary.
Someone mentioned the other day that Messi hasn't done well when surrounded by other World Class strikers. I guess they are pointing out his time with Ibra and the struggles Alexis has had. Villa did ok his first season, but had a dry spell. He still had 23 goals in all competitions while Pedro had 22. He spent most of the year hurt in 11-12 and this season has battled for time and a few injuries.
My reason for bringing that up is if you gave Messi a world class striker to play along side and any of the other 4 or 5 current strikers I think he would do even better and as a team the sky would be the limit. I don't believe a guy who attracts that must defensive attention can't make another striker better.
Currently he has scored in 21 straight games. A few of those games he has come on as a late sub, which makes it more than impressive. So, I wonder if could he finish this season by continuing the streak on to next year? I think 30 would be ultra impressive.
Messi has 46 League goals. Last year he set an all Euro league record with 50. He should score the 5 needed to break the record, but can he score 9 to get to 55? Would anyone ever touch 55? I bet no. I think he ends up with 52 though. He hasn't scored a hat trick in a while and Aletico and Malaga are on the slate. Two teams that won't making scoring easy.
Last season Messi scored 73 goals in 60 appearances. This season he has a chance to make 54 appearances. He needs to hit 64 goals to have a better goals to appearance differential. Pretty astounding since he did it in less games. I think he blows the doors off and scores 67. 1.25 goals per game average. Scary.
Someone mentioned the other day that Messi hasn't done well when surrounded by other World Class strikers. I guess they are pointing out his time with Ibra and the struggles Alexis has had. Villa did ok his first season, but had a dry spell. He still had 23 goals in all competitions while Pedro had 22. He spent most of the year hurt in 11-12 and this season has battled for time and a few injuries.
My reason for bringing that up is if you gave Messi a world class striker to play along side and any of the other 4 or 5 current strikers I think he would do even better and as a team the sky would be the limit. I don't believe a guy who attracts that must defensive attention can't make another striker better.
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