Five Teams to Watch in 2013-14

With the European football season hitting the home stretch there is still lot to play for. I find myself taking stock of a few sides that I think can flip the switch next year and either do something in Europe or challenge for their league.

We all know the traditional powers will be loaded for bare, but what I'm interested in the teams that are on the rise. Last year those teams would have been sides like PSG and Juventas. This season I think a lot of the focus has to go back to the EPL sides. Here are the five teams I think we all need to keep an eye on next season.

Liverpool

Brendan Rodgers has tried to bring the tikki takky football to Liverpool, or at least his version of it. Early on Liverpool appeared to be struggling to make the changes in their style. They also lacked the player depth to get it done. Sterling was a refreshing surprise in the first half of the season, but it was the first half of the season that is likely going to keep Liverpool out of the European spots this season.

Since adding Sturridge and Coutinho Liverpool have looked even better going forward and have taken some of the burden off of Luis Saurez who has been probably the third best striker in the world this season. They still need to address some midfield and backline issues, but honestly what team doesn't. Still I feel like if they can keep the core of this squad together and some B+ depth players, Liverpool could challenge for the title next year. I at least see them back in the UCL spots for sure.

Spurs

Will he or won't he. That's the question that Spurs need to get answered about their superstar Gaerth Bale this summer. If they can get him to stay just one more season I think the sky's the limit for Spurs. They for sure have enough attacking options, but they would improve with some midfield help. (Go figure!) If they lose Bale it's going to be hard to replace the chaos he causes. I'm not sure they could add a player to make up for it.

The coach has done a wonderful job restoring his reputation and has built confidence in his side. They look poised to land in third in the league and get back to the UCL. Still they could be back to mid table should they lose Bale. This is an important summer for Spurs.

AC Milan

Remember when AC Milan were too young and looked to be on their way out of the UCL spots in Italy? Remember when they pulled off the transfer that they themselves said they weren't interested in? Something about bad apples! Well now AC are the hottest team in the league. They probably won't get the title this year, but they look poised to be a solid second. They had Barcelona on the ropes in the UCL and have Super Mario looking like the player we all thought he could be.

Max Allegri has rebuilt his side so fast I think he should be considered for coach of the year. Milan could be a force in the Serie A and Europe next season if their side continues to develop as they should. I look for them to get off to a shaky start because of the high expectations, but they will quickly be a major power in Europe by midseason. Everyone should beware.

Aletico Madrid

Another will he or won't he situation. Madrid face the Falcao question this summer. If he stays then the sky is the limit, but if he goes then it's back to the outside looking in. Rumor has it they may go to for a swap with Fernando Torres returning home, but he's nowhere near the level of Falcao at this point.

Their coach has done a wonderful job and that's a common theme on this list. I think again they just need some B+ players and they could be a danger. A striker that could give them a few more goals would be ideal. It doesn't have to be a pick of the liter kind of guy either. Just another 10 to 15 goals.

It's a very tough time to challenge for a La Liga title during the Messi Ronaldo era, but next season might be their best shot. Real face more questions than any team in Europe. Barcelona look poised to make changes on the back line and upfront. This could be the year to catch those two sides changing and a good early run might open the door.

That German Side

Everyone keeps talking about how good the German league is and how this is the NOW league. I've been puzzled by this all season. Bayern have crushed the league. They've been a stone cold run away. Dortmund did well to win their UCL group, but they look to be sellers in the offseason as they have the last two years. Shalke had a decent UCL run, but their sellers and they didn't have any notable wins over quality sides.

I believe the Bundesliga is a mirage. For sure Bayern is a top five side in Europe loaded with talented players, a great incoming coach, a great current coach, and good upper management, but the rest of the league just doesn't match up. Bayern also benefits from the fact that they play four less league games a year. They get a huge break in the winter. For most of their players it a longer vacation than the summer offers.

I'll be watching for the squad that steps up this season out of Germany. I just don't see it happening, but the outcry has been so loud for the Germans I must be wrong. Right?

The Lakers Playoff Hopes

A month or so ago I wrote an article about what I thought the Lakers playoff chances were with about 30 or so games left.  At this point I had them about 2 games over .500, but I did not have them beating some of the teams they did or losing to some of the teams they did.  I also thought it would be a struggle between them and Houston.

Things went a little differently.  The Lakers didn't struggle their way through this period.  They actually took advantage of a favorable schedule and beat the Bulls, Celtics, and Blazers.  Teams I had them losing too.  They really did well against the cupcake teams and almost pulled out a massive game against Atlanta that I proclaimed, at the time, would insure their playoff spot.  In the meantime Houston and Golden State put on a good run of form that locked up spots for both teams while Utah sunk below .500 and almost past Dallas.

Dallas had a decent run of form (considering they are below .500 that's a generous description) and got to the 9th spot and within range of the Lakers.  Still it seemed Utah and Dallas would be on the outside looking in with the Lakers finishing a comfortable 6 games over .500 for the month and possibly a chance to grab the 7 seed.  That's how I viewed in about mid March even after the Kobe injury.

Then the last 5 games happened.  The Lakers couldn't hang tough with the Suns yet again.  It was a back to back, but the Lakers needed that game.  I think the Lakers will look back at this season and point to those Suns loses as killer to their hopes, but they will have many losses to pick from.  After three days rest the Lakers collapsed against Washington at home.  For me that was a sign of something is wrong.  There is no way the Lakers should lose to Washington.  Kobe had returned along with Pau.  The Lakers blew a huge first half lead and were handled soundly by one of the leagues worst road teams.

A loss two days later to Golden State was no major surprise, but it didn't help the situation.  Minnesota has been an easy target without Kevin Love all season and a lucky no call staved off defeat.  So their the Lakers stood against Minnesota on Thursday night.  It was back to back, but a win would put them 3 over and likely they could end the month 4 over with a win against the Kings on Saturday.  Yet the Lakers imploded again, allowing a furious come back.  During the game Steve Nash picked up an injury, but worse so after the game Kobe had a bone spur issue.  So now the Lakers face a massive test against the Kings tonight.  The Jazz have had enough form to get back to 1 game over .500.  Putting them in a tie for the 8th spot.

The Lakers have nine games left.  Howard has been better health wise.  Pau should only improve.  Nash should be ok or miss only a game or two.  Kobe is very durable and probably won't miss much time if any at all.  MWP is a huge loss for LA as his six weeks out basically means his done for the year.  The Lakers face a very uphill climb in April.  Here's how I see it going down.

@ Kings
This is a huge game for the Lakers.  They don't have too many should win games left on the schedule, but a 70% Laker team should be enough for the Kings.  You have to wonder though if Kobe doesn't play with no MWP or Nash what chance they really have.  So if Kobe doesn't go they are dead meat in my opinion, but I think he does and they pick up the win.
38-36

Vs. Dallas
Dallas has been spotty all season hence why they are in the position they are in.  They have been better as of late and shouldn't be over looked.  The Lakers should get this one, but I'm going to say that a desperate Dallas pulls it out.
38-37

Vs. Memphis
I can't imagine a scenario where LA wins this game.  They have had an awful record against teams with winning records this year, let alone a top team in the West.
38-38

@ Clippers
The Clippers have owned the Lakers this year and I don't see that changing.  The Clippers have all the right pieces to hurt LA.  They're young, fast, and deep.
38-39

@ Hornets
This is a should win and a must win.  If the Lakers found a way to lose this one then it's lights out. I don't think they could emotionally recover from the media storm.  Yet, unless they are injury ridden, or the Hornets decided to have their game of the year, I see them walking through this one.
39-39

@ Trailblazers
This game is a tough one.  I think the Blazers hopes for the playoffs slipped away this week.  They will be hungry to hurt the Lakers chances, but I don't see LA losing this one.  The back to back on the road is a huge factor.  I'll give the Lakers the benefit of the doubt here.
40-39

Vs. Golden State
Golden State will likely be trying to improve their playoff position.  In any event they are too much for LA.
40-40

Vs. Spurs
Ok on paper this looks like a white wash, but the Spurs should have the #1 seed locked up at this point and so the big three will likely be wrapped in plastic.  Still the Spurs are so deep and good.  They beat the Bulls without the big three on the road and almost did it to the Heat.  I say the Spurs do it.  Although I think Pop secretly wants to play LA in the playoffs.
40-41

Vs. Houston
Houston won't have a ton to play form.  Maybe a playoff spot.  Still I think they relish a chance to KO LA.  What team wouldn't.
40-42

The Jazz probably beat that record, so it's likely it wouldn't get LA into the playoffs. All nine games are crucial, but the first one tonight has to be had.  The Lakers have to find a way to beat Dallas, which isn't a huge ask, but I just think the Mavs will be motivated by the trash talk from the last game and get that one.  Also, crucial is pulling the off the back to back on the road.  I see them doing it, but catching Portland on the 2nd day makes that tougher.  I see it going their way, but it must happen or their finished.

The doomsday scenario for LA is a losing the next four in a row, which you can easily see happening.  If their stars don't play against the Kings and Dallas beats them they might not have much left in the mental tank to even win another game.  The LA brass might have to start thinking about protecting it's stars.  Pau, Nash and Kobe might be shelved for next year.  The media circus around it all would be surely fascinating.

#cantwait

Return of the King

Jordi Alba is out for some time now. A tough loss for the Barca back line as they had already lost Adrianno and Puyol. In the league this will matter little as Barca has a soft next few games. It's a against PSG and perhaps the next UCL opponent that this becomes a great concern.

So what is Barca likely to do? I think we probably see Alves, Pique, Mascho with Song or Sergio playing in the center with Mascho moved to the left. It's only one spot that changes from the last tie, but it does open the situation up for mistakes.

I wonder if Barca are thinking maybe this is a great chance to bring back the frenchmen in France? I don't think King Eric will start, but I could see a situation where he comes in to play left back for the last 20 or so. Wouldn't that be a fitting return?

In order for this to happen I think he would surely need to get 30 good minutes this weekend at Celta. Can it happen? It would be a nice story.

That was Fun at the Nou Camp

Definitely felt like the better team won tonight.  I expended a ton of energy rooting on Barca.  I don't think I've done that for any team in years.  Here are a few thoughts in no particular order.

• The opening goal was insane.  How much space did he have to get that shot off?  Inches.  That goal settled down Barca and took the cushion away immediately.  I think everyone started believing after that.  Milan never got a chance to apply pressure until they were down 3-0.  They didn't see the ball for the first 10 minutes.

• Couldn't believe the no call on Pedro.  I know the ref probably hated to call it, but that was a clear PK.  That's two clear PK's in the last 10 days missed on Barca that were dead easy to call. If it happened to Man U or Real they would be screaming bloody murder.

• I talked about needing a bit of luck.  Good goal keeping by Valdes to make Niang work for it, but he needs to score there.  That was a little luck for Barca that they deserved.  See no hand ball call in leg one.  See Pedro misses a sitter against Real in the Copa.  See Messi misses a chip against Sociedad...the list goes on and on. 

• Game one Milan looked hungrier for the ball.  This game Xavi and Inesta were hungrier than everyone on the pitch.  Milan was missing players, but Barca just wanted that ball way more.

• Inesta playing as a midfielder, as I stated, was crucial and made a huge difference.  He created chance after chance winning the ball back and creating mini counter attacks.

• Milan defend like mad.  They are great at it.  Gives the result even more quality.  Barca shot the windows out of the bus though.

• Saw a stat on the Locker room about Messi's conversion rate on shots being like 35%.  When he made that second goal it's all I could think about.  We he swings that foot 1/3 of the time it's going in.  It's insane if you think about it considering how hard it is to score a soccer goal.

• Again how little space did he have to get that second goal?  Less than inches that time.  After that anyone who wants to say anything about him scoring goals against Italian sides can kiss my big f....you get the picture.

• Alves barely got the ball deep at the San Siro.  I lost track in tonight's match how many times he touched the ball on the flank deep.  Villa being on the pitch helped that.  Funny that the Fox color guy was all over him for bad crosses.  It was more like great defending by Milan forcing him to be inch perfect or go the long way with some of them.

• Favorite comment of the night was Alves has been off form?  Really?  I guess he has only watched a few Barca matches this year.

• Villa didn't have his greatest match, but when the ball was at his feet in a dangerous position he scored.  That's the difference between him playing upfront and Inesta/Cesc.  He's a natural goal scorer.  You have to respect him.  This helps Messi.  Playing a striker upfront was key to victory today for me.

• Kudos to having the same midfield and strike team as the 2011 UCL final.  Really just the few changes at the back.  

• When it was 3-0 I knew that it was going to be a long way to the end, but I felt vindicated for Barca against all the pundits that were so down on them.  15 trophies out of 20 going into this season.  The liga in the bag, but everyone ran scared because they lost to the second best team in the world.  (Also they go jibbed in the second match out of a draw, but who cares other than Jose Mo.)

• The color guy for Fox Soccer was so bias against Barca that I couldn't figure out if certain players were really playing as bad as he said?  How many good shots did Milan really get on goal?  He never made a comment about how wasteful Milan were at times.

• Scary to think how good Milan will be next year with a few key pieces and Balotelli in the UCL.  I think if I'm Milan the only thing that bothers me outside of the Niang miss is that they let Messi beat them.  I don't think Pedro had a goal in him tonight.  Villa didn't have a hat trick in him.  They needed to sell out more against Messi, but that's being hypercritical.  

• There were a ton of scary moments, but I didn't get worried until late on where a goal would be impossible to come back from.  I thought Messi might put away that free kick and end the drama.  He has been so good on his free kicks this year.  

• I couldn't figure out if Alexis was having a good match or not.  Then he puts the great cross together and I start to think he is.  It's like Modric.  He's suddenly great after his goal and play against Man U 10 V 11.  Then he goes out against Celta and is back to his former self.

• I was glad to hear Wynalda and Barton say that Barca are now the favorite.  I felt the performance warranted it.  The perception changed in that game.  They got four against a team that defended them very well.  Bayern can't defend Barca like that.  They can trouble them in the midfield, but they can't close the space down like Milan did.

• You have to feel good for David Villa.  His injury hurt last year, but so did the slow recovery, the lack of 1st team starts, the kidney issue, the transfer talk, and just all the BS around him. It was good to see him get a big moment.  He's had a career of scoring big goals.  That one was a big winner.    

• Pedro worked hard.  It was silly of him to get a card.  I don't think he was ever very dangerous.  Thankfully we didn't get too many Pedro holding his head in disbelief moments.  I value what he does, but he needs to be more dangerous.

• Puyol was getting ripped by this color guy.  I don't know if he was really playing bad.  Against Real in the Copa he looked bad, but he was Barca's man of the match in the first leg.

• Milan through the kitchens sink against Barca the last 20 or so.  Messi dug in and defended and pestered.  Have you ever seen a certain number 7 do that?  He did look tired by the end, but he played the perfect ball to Alexis that setup the winner.  

• It was a physical game.  Only really the push on Pedro no call bothered me.  Milan was picking up some many yellows that you had to wonder if they were going to have a team for the next leg.  

• Xavi was healthy and if he wasn't then he's just amazing.  He looked totally different than the last two matches he played.  He looks so much better when he's passing to Inesta.  

• I really don't care who we play in the next round.  How about Juvie, then Bayern and then Real in the final.  Why not earn it?  Some would say that's hard, but it's also hard for anyone coming at us.  It's the hard that makes it great.

• Love to see PSG vs. Real.  The two most vain teams in soccer battle it out in two of Europes biggest Cities.  Then Gala Vs. Real.  I will root against them in all cases, but in the end I would love to see Messi deny Jose Mo in his final game with Real of meaning.  

• The away goals rule needs to change.  If it's tied it's tied.  Go to extra time and PK's.  It just makes for silly strategies that take away from the game.  Milan would have pressed earlier if the rule didn't exist.  

• How loud was the Nou Camp at the end of the match.  It was incredible.  That's passion.  You can't buy that or make it up.

This has been the best UCL I've ever watched.  The match ups keep coming.  The next round will surely be even better.  Who won't be tuning in to that draw.  Would it freak anyone out if Arsenal suddenly up ended Bayern tomorrow?  (Let's hope not)

My closing thought is simply this.  Last week everyone craved the big match up between Real and Man U.  It was a great contest and edge of your seat stuff for 60 odd minutes and then the game was ruined.  Tonight's game was edge of your seat down to the bitter end.  It was what we wanted last week to be.  Fitting to say the least.

Press on.  What a day for soccer.  

A Lineup that must be Right

Going into the Milan clash in the UCL Tuesday Barcelona are limited in their options for victory.  They must score 2 and allow none to get to extra time and pks, or out score Milan by 3 and win in regulation.  Most people have settled on the idea that they need four goals because they are likely to allow one.  I wouldn't disagree with this thinking.  I think Barca should embrace this notion because then regardless if Milan gets an early goal they would already know they probably had to get four anyway.

In order to do this Barca has to be very attack driven.  They rumor has been floated they may start four strikers.  A move that Tito pulled when they trailed in a few games early in the season.  He brought in a 4th striker and took off a player a the back.  I really like this idea, but never as a starting lineup.  This is something Pep should have done against Chelsea in the second half of the UCL last season and Barca might have hoisted that trophy last season.  

In this case I wouldn't do it.  I've got two good reasons.  The first is that Arsenal pinged three goals at home last year in the same stage against this Milan side.  Barca only need two goals, which leads into my second point.  Yes 4 is probably what needs to be scored, but if Barca score first then they are probably a bigger favorite to get the 2nd with Milan desperately dropping back and being conservative.  So, playing this match with the normal 4-3-3 makes sense because you don't allow Milan to attack at three with the two goal cushion early on.  Remember Milan aren't under major pressure until the lead gets within a goal.  In addition if they would have played 3-3-4 more then it would make sense, but they haven't done that outside of some late game situations.

Should the match get into the 50th minute with Barca still needing two, or even worse, three goals then the fourth attacker should be brought on and throw caution to the wind because there is no tomorrow if you lose.

I've been up in arms about the following starting 11 for the last few weeks.  I think it's part of the trends that have lead to Barca's bad form because of the way teams can defend against it.  I will be sick if this is the lineup named for the match;

Messi

Inesta

Pedro

Cesc

Xavi

Sergio

Alves

Puyol

Pique

Alba

Valdes

I have no problems at the back or with the keeper, but I take issue with front line and how it effects the midfield.  Since Barca switches around a lot Cesc and Inesta are really always trading places, but neither poses a true striking threat.  Yes they can score goals, but they are not true strikers. Inesta's midfield presence is lost and Xavi is a little less effective in this set.  Xavi played against Milan hurt in the previous match.  It also appeared that way in the Copa.  I respect that he got himself back for both matches, but I have been critical of Barca letting him go out there when his passing lacked snap and connectivity.  He was pushed back and with no Inesta to flank him and he was out worked in midfield by Milan and Real.

I think it's always really tough for Barca to sit Xavi.  He was clearly hurt at the same point in the season last year and his passes were coming up 2 feet short of their intended targets.  When pundits have pointed out that Milan and Real Madrid looked like the hungrier team the most glaring example of this was Xavi getting stuck high up the pitch and being out worked for the ball.  He's one of the all time greats and probably the greatest midfielder of all time, at worst of his generation, but when he's off form in such a pivotal position he can really hurt the Barca attack and allow for a lot of counters.  I'm sure it's very difficult for the Barca's management team to sit him, but if he's not healthy he shouldn't be picked for this weeks match.

The problems that Inesta/Cesc upfront and Xavi playing hurt are not limited their personal performances.  They effect Messi's ability to get the ball in dangerous spaces.  I think teams have decided well let's not let Messi beat us and sell out defensively and force these other guys to do something.  Messi has been getting the ball on his wrong foot a lot with four defenders ready within a foot of him.  On his better foot he can't get the ball at all since the left side defenders aren't as worried about Cesc and Inesta.  He's also spending a lot of time up around the center circle.  I think he's doing this just so that he can get some touches going, but should that every really happen when you have Sergio, Xavi and Inesta playing behind you?  I point to Inesta playing upfront and his presence being missed behind Messi.  The bottom line is whether I'm right or not about the tactics teams are using, it's simply easier to defend Messi when he's not flanked on both sides by natural goals scoring threats.

My last gripe with this lineup is the form of Pedro.  If you really pay close attention to Barca and Real Madrid you would know that Pedro's missed chance in the Copa Del Rey first leg could partially be the reason that Real Madrid got through in the UCL.  (Not just the worst red card in a big match I've ever see.)  In the world of what if's this is how it played out.  Barca got the opening goal in the first leg of the Copa and Real Madrid sold out to try to get the tying goal.  Barca sat back a little and actually became the counter attacking team.  Real allowed huge long balls and long runs for Barca.  With Barca still up Pedro got the best chance of all getting one on one with the keeper.  Messi was dashing down the middle, but this was clearly Pedro's shot to take.  He took it and missed by a wide margin on what was basically a glorified tap in.  As bad as Villa's miss against Depor.  Real got their tying goal and the rest is history.

I contend if he scores there the Copa is over.  Barca leave with at worst 2 away goals, but probably even better a mentally distraught Real Madrid in their wake who has just lost at home.  Real probably folds up against Barca in the next leg and then are too mentally worn down to handle Old Trafford.  Didn't Real look extra confident coming off two wins over Barca on Tuesday?  Beating Barca spurred them on to turn around what has been a disappointing season thus far.

In any event Pedro hasn't done a lot of scoring lately, but his early season form has seen him picked over the struggling Alexis and an unhappy David Villa.  Villa was injured for the last leg, so he wasn't an option anyway.  For me he's off form at least from a goal scoring standpoint. He's just not sharp with his finishing and it makes it easier for teams to defend against Messi.

So, what 11 should Barca go with?  A lot depends on fitness, but I believe ultimately Barca has to put a lineup out their that gives them the best chance to win by 3 goals or more.  Here's my 11;

Upfront

Messi

Villa

Alexis

Pedro has to sit for my above stated reason.  He's not scoring goals right now.  Villa is a goal scorer.  Despite his bad game against Depor he's still one of the best goal scores of all time and his shot making ability should help to keep Milan a little more honest in a lot of ways.  Getting to play in that Depor game is only going to help his form.  Alexis had his best game in a Barca shirt since the Real league away leg all the way back in 2011 against Depor.  That was a long time ago.  His willingness to pass the ball this season in some spots and his pace should again keep Milan more honest.  Also he's physically stronger than Pedro something that counts against a good defending Italian side.  Tello looked very rusty to me yesterday, again he needed that match like Villa.  This is a symptom of not seeing the pitch enough and being young and inexperienced.  I wouldn't mind seeing him start, but just off form I have to favor Alexis and Villa for experience.

Midfield

Inesta

Xavi/Thiago

Sergio

If Inesta is playing in the midfield life will be better for Messi.  It will also help the rest of the midfield and give them some space because I think Milan will back off a few feet fearing that could get ripped up more if they don't.  Xavi plays if he is healthy, and by that I mean 80% fit at least.  If not Thiago did enough to impress me yesterday that he should see his first big match start.  He isn't as polished as Xavi or Cesc by a wide margin, but he gives them the pace and passing ability to score goals.  It was tough for me to pick Thiago over Cesc, but I preferred Cesc as a super sub in this game.  Sergio is a no brainer.

Backline

Valdes

Alba

Pique

Puyol

Alves

Valdes is still our best keeper.  Alba is a better scoring option then Adrianno on that side.  Adrianno does better when he starts on the other side, but Alves had a man of the match performance and also tends to be the one creating the width on the right side.  Isn't it amazing how much Alves has the ball on the right near the box for crosses.  It's as much as Tello and Villa do when they start on the right.  Strange that Pedro rarely gets the ball in this position.

Puyol started Saturday, but should still start Tuesday.  His leadership cannot be under valued.  I thought he played a gutty game in the first leg.  He seemed to be the only hungry player we had on the pitch.  You always want your inspirational leader out there.  From an attacking standpoint Javier gives you the ability to get the ball up the pitch too, but I'll favor Puyol.

The subs will be dependent on how the match plays out, but if things go bad it's pretty easy to me. In no order in particular.  Cesc for Thiago.  Pedro for Villa and Tello for Puyol.  If I'm looking for goals Tello is my first move.  The important thing here is the subs can't be Tello for Villa.  Barca has to sell out if they make these changes.  Honestly anyone that can score should not leave the pitch unless Barca gets up 3-0.  Then Cesc for Thiago for experience and poise.  You don't want Thiago losing his focus.  Pedro for Villa so Pedro can run himself into the ground chasing the ball and making life miserable for the Milan midfield. Finally, Song for Alexis to build a brick wall in the midfield.

This is a blog about the lineup, but here are my other key factors that play in Barca's favor.

• The pitch will not be the same cabbage patch of the San Siro.  This gave Milan an edge because they played huge long balls in the air that the pitch couldn't effect.  It slowed the Barca attack, caused a lot of passes to get picked off and made it a grinders game.  At the Nou Camp the pitch will be slick and fast.  Milan will still have their counters, but the ball will be moving back at them much faster leaving space for Barca and tiring out Milan.  Just ask Real Madrid about it.
• Barca will almost certainly win.  They have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.  The stats say that they are not likely to lose this one, but will they win by enough?
• All the factors that made everyone say that Milan are a walk over for Barca are still there.  Boetang is not that good and could lose his cool.  They are young in a lot of spots and that don't come close to matching Barca player for player.  Milan are in good form, but they lack the experience and the pure class to hang with Barca on paper.  I think we will start to see that Tuesday.
• Milan are favorites to advance over Barca.  They aren't the underdogs, but they also feel pretty good about where they stand.  They are going to come in confident, but being the big favorite may play against them.  Chelsea were not perceived to be big favorites when they came to the Nou Camp.  They stayed focused and won.  Milan are not Chelsea and may panic should they fall a goal down and if the match goes even on aggregate I think they are likely to crack mentally.  I can see Boetang getting sent off.  I don't even have a crystal ball and I can see that.
• It's at the Nou Camp.  The speed of the pitch is one thing, but if Barca score a goal the place will rock.  There is a reason Barca rarely loses there and its the fans as the 12th man.  Sure Real went there and got a big win, but in that game it was a pick'em.  In this one Milan are the target and there's even more at stake. I wouldn't want to be a Milan player if Barca score first and early.  

In any event I can't wait.  Win or lose it should be a big time drama.  Can't wait to watch and I hope whatever lineup it is rises to the challenge.

Hawks Wings Recap

The Hawks and Wings played a very entertaining hockey game for such a low scoring affair. It had few stoppages and the game swung back and fourth. The Hawks were dominate in the first two periods, but Detroit made a good accounting of itself in the 3rd and grabbed the lead.

The Hawks upped the pressure after allowing that goal and forced a bad clearance that lead to a delay of game penalty. That penalty led to a great goal by Kane. Another delay of game penalty on Detroit almost caused them to lose in regulation, but they killed it off extending in to overtime and managed to get to a shootout.

Crawford saved three and Kane scored a nice sitter to end it. Crawford's three saves in OT and overall play in the game made him the number 1 star. Kane the number 2 star with his shootout and equalizer goals. Howard for Detroit was the third star. He kept Detroit in the game for 2 periods, almost seeing them through with a shut out, but the Hawks pressure finally worn down the Wings in the end.

A good solid win for the Hawks over a solid opponent. The streak goes on and the lead in the conference grows. I know most people would tell you that a 1 seed is jinxed, but in this shortened season the Hawks will surely want that advantage in the playoffs. The streak is great because the sooner the Hawks can lock up the #1 seed coach Q can begin to aggressively rest players while other teams can't. If things keep up the Hawks will be poised and rested for a strong playoff push.

A Must Win for Madrid of the Highest Order

Another huge win for Real yesterday. Referree decisions aside they played good enough to win and have won 2 huge games over Barca, but despite that Tuesday looms large. The Man U game is the biggest game of the season and carries with it the hopes of all Madrid fans.

So what's at state;

Real has trounced their eternal rival twice in one week, but the Copa is the least valued of the of the three titles. The league match was for bragging rights as the title is way out of reach. It's the UCL that could legitimize their season, but at the same time a bad result could end it. Just like Barca the next three months could be all going through the motions with little left of value on the league calendar.

Jose Mo has had a habit of smelling like roses. Two loses to Barca and the media would be foaming at the mouth for him, but he got the wins and now the praise for him having Real right at the right time is pouring in from all corners. If we take a step back though we have to realize he lost the league in the prior year. His team has been in shambles behind the scenes and few believe he will return. He didn't win his UCL group, which is why this leg is on the road. He's got Real 1-1 going into an away leg against probably the 4th best team in the world. To say that he has them in perfect position is a very questionable belief. Winning Tuesday changes all that, but I think a lot rests on the result for him that these last two wins can't make up for.

The Copa is not a forgone conclusion. When Barca advanced last year they really were a shoe in to win the Copa, but Real face a tough opponent looking for a signature win. Success in the UCL looms bigger as Real could go from a shot at two to zero trophies in a lot of scenarios. This season will be immediately viewed as a major disappointment.

Ronaldo wants his Balon D'or during the Messi era. With Barca barely in the UCL big Ron has his best chance in the last four years to get it. He's scored 3 goals against Barca and Man U in big games. Messi has one goal against Milan and Real over the same stretch. A big game against Man U could make him the favorite unless Messi and company can really turn things around against Milan. Ronaldo needs the UCL considering the records Messi is dropping this season. If they exit now Messi will likely get it again as he's poised to shatter the same records he set last year and Barca are going to win the league.

Sir Alex looks poised to stay at Old Trafford for a few more seasons. If you are Sir Alex and you see what's happening financially to Ronaldo you have to realize you can possibly pluck the striker away. Even if you have to go to the war chest you will have so much support from your fan base to do it and you have a big leg up on Real due to the tax laws. A loss on Tuesday reignites the Ronaldo to Man U hype machine. With Real having very little to play for after a loss Marca and every other major news agency will make this the story. That will only make it tougher for Real to keep Ronaldo in town. Certainly something that Florentino Perez doesn't need on his mind.

Jose Mo could be dead meat if Real do not advance. While winning Tuesday still leaves a lot of tough rounds until a UCL title can be grasped. A first round loss is a lot worse than a third round though. Jose Mo's chances of being around after this year would be greatly diminshed. He needs this win. I don't buy the hype that he wants to leave. I think it's all spin out of his camp to keep the egg of his face for the failings of Real this season. Failure in Real this season could only add to the nay sayers on Jose and could be a put off to a lot of rich owners. It's not like Perez didn't give him a cupboard full of world class players.

I'm usually hyper critical of people when they say one game that means so much and defines a team. Usually one game is just one game, but this game carries a lot of strings attached. I'll be interested to see how it all plays out and how it changes the landscape of soccer over the coming months.