The Heat got beat badly last night. It was a different
type of blowout from Game 2 and will have some lingering effects on this
series. Here are my scattered thoughts on what was a scattered game.
The Spurs were leading in the third quarter of game 2 by
four with the ball. It was a game they could have won. Last night
the game was over mid-way through the third. Even though LeBron got the
lead down to 13 it was still and out of reach game because he and Wade had not
rested in the third. I know everyone wants everyone to man up, but against a team that is constantly hitting you with fresh bodies and legs you have to rest your key players for a few minutes.
The Spurs did it all with their bench and role
players. This was not a throttling where Duncan, Parker, or Ginobli went
off. This was a pure team win with Leonard, Neal, and Green doing the
damage, while Splitter was also stuffing the pant. The Heat made their run
on the back of LeBron in Game 2. Hence why the Heat will have to adjust a lot of things and not just on one player.
There are factors in this series that the Heat need to
address. Joel Anthony needs to play more than Birdman and Mike
Miller. They need his defense and rebounding ability. Birdman is
being exposed as a paper defender and only offensive when he gets a rebound or
catches a pass under the basket. Anthony gives them a better option as he
can not only rebound, but also clog the lane and defend Duncan. He also makes free
throws. I’m not saying no Birdman just more Anthony. I am
saying no Mike Miller.
Mike Miller is killing the Heat. He’s hit 8 straight
threes and hasn’t missed in two games, but on the defensive end he couldn’t
guard some WNBA players right now. He can’t keep Parker, Ginobli, Neal,
Leonard, or anyone for that matter in front of him. Especially when he
gets screened. I said it after game 1 he has no business out there.
The Heat rotation should be Cole, Anthony, Birdman (in spots), Battier, and
Allen. They should be able to keep Miller firmly on the bench like
against Indy. Battier doesn’t need to play big minutes he just needs to
provide a blow here and there.
The Spurs did not win last night because they shot well from
3. They won because on numerous possessions the Heat got caught on switches against mainly Miller and allowed the Spurs to get easy lay ups or elbow
jumpers. Once Neal, Green, and Leonard started slashing it opened up the
Heat to threes. If the Spurs had made 5 less they still win by 20. If people think the record threes was the difference they are wrong. It just added to the margin of victory.
The Heat can still win the series. With Parker a
question mark you have to wonder if the Spurs role players can step up again. SA was awful down the stretch without Parker and it cost them the
1 seed in the West. The only balancing factor is D Wade. If he
continues to play poorly the Heat will struggle despite LeBron. He’s killing
Bosh because he’s making it harder for him to get easy buckets like during the
regular season. If it takes 100 points to win on Thursday and LeBron
gives you 40 where do they get the other 60 if Bosh can’t get off because of
Wades poor play? Ok and maybe just Bosh’s poor play. What if LeBron can't get 40?
The fact is that Bosh has lost his
identity. If the Heat win the Finals this year they still will have to
rebuild Chris Bosh. When Wade is 90% or better he and LeBron create loads
of space for Bosh to operate and get easy open shots, but as the Heat got even
better this season Bosh became a 3 point shooter. The question is
why? Don’t they have two specialists in Allen and Miller to do that and
Mario Chalmers? It happened because he was working against a soft East
and Wade was playing better. Now that Wade is hurt and can’t slash for 40
minutes he’s easier to defend. So in turn Bosh is easier to defend.
Wade is limited to an inconsistent jump shots and the occasional post
penetration. That simply isn’t getting it done. Bosh is never
getting post catches and doesn’t remember how to create his own shot because he
doesn’t have to normally. He’s given up on rebounding because all season
they were the worst in the league and it didn’t matter. Miami needs to
completely rebuild Bosh back into something worth 20 million a year. So
my theory is Wade is killing Bosh because Bosh needs him to play well to be a factor. I think it has nothing to do with his ankle.
Game 4 is a monster game. I won’t count the Heat out
until the final whistle because of LeBron and the David Stern factor, but I
think the mental implosion of the Heat will occur should they lose game
4. It’s been simmering since the Bulls series. LeBron is
having to do too much because Wade is hurt. Norris Cole stepped up
against the Bulls so it didn’t matter in that series. The Pacers were not mentally
ready. So, the question becomes how long can the Heat keep coming back
from things. After they lost game 1 everyone said they did that last year
and against the Bulls. No big deal. After they lost 3 everyone said
well they have not lost back to backs yet. They have defined the stats to
this point, but how long can you keep digging yourself into a hole before you
can climb your way out. I think in this case they have finally dug
themselves too deep. The stats are greatly tipping against them.
The Parker injury could be huge. The Spurs will not
only lose everything he does, but also whoever they start won’t be there to tap
on the shoulder off the bench. Thankfully Joseph has seen big minutes
here and there to get him some experience and time. That will help them, but I’ve still felt all along that the key for the Spurs is Leonard and
Green. If they had played big last year they Spurs raise the trophy, but
they needed some seasoning. Still I think the X Factor is Ginobli.
He played better last night. He hit a few key shots, but mainly he had 6
assists. If he can fill in the gap and give them 20 over the next two I
think the Spurs at home can find a way.
Another Key factor that should not be lost on anyone.
In game 2 when the Heat went on the big run Pop pulled his starters pretty
quick. Duncan, Parker, and Ginobli got some big rest. Then in game
3 Parker was hurt, so he played low minutes, Duncan sat the entire fourth, and
Ginobli played 23 minutes. Going into the key game 4 the Spurs are mega
Fresh. Only one player got more than 30 minutes and that was Green with
31. In contrast Wade had 34, Bosh had 32 and LeBron 39. You can’t
spot the Spurs that much time. That’s why blowouts can really shake up a
series.
Many compared LeBron to MJ in the way that Jordan wouldn’t
have done some of the same things LeBron did last night. I say they are
two different players and LeBron is fine in what he does, but I know that even
Kobe would have started that fourth quarter on the Bench. The reason is
even if the Heat came back with LeBron they would have been gassed down the
stretch and the Spurs probably win. If you rest LeBron for 2 minutes and
maybe 10 minutes of actually time you give him a chance to recharge and
refocus. If in that time the Spurs pull away then you weren’t coming back
anyway. The Heat had to get something from someone else. Hence why
this is a team game. All the Heat accomplished by playing him was running
down the LeBron battery, which I will admit is pretty impressive.
Game 4 is one day rest while game 5 is on two days’
rest. The Spurs can strongly consider resting Parker and overplaying
Neal, Leonard, and Green knowing they are staying in SA and can get that extra day
rest to recover. If you had to protect Parker this is the perfect spot to
do it. Game 4 should be very interesting. The story lines are
flowing.
On to Game 1 of these Cup Finals.
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