Lakers Vs. Heat Count Down

I have a feeling that today's Lakers Vs. Heat game decides the Lakers playoff hopes.  Based on my previous blog http://jga1635.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-lakers-playoff-hopes.html.  I feel like the Lakers need that we believe moment.  A win over a really good team that's in form on the road.  It would return a good record on the road trip and put the loss to the Celtics in the rear view mirror.

If the Lakers just try to beat the teams they are favored over the rest of the way they are not going to make the playoffs.  They need a streak of 8 out of team games where they are playing good basketball. They need big win that keys a streak.  The upcoming schedule offers them that best chance.

The bad news is LA finds a Heat team in really good form.  Lebron is on fire having his best stretch of the season.  They just dismantled the Clippers and questions about their bench have been answered as Bosh and Allen were out for the last game and Wade was playing sick.

The Lakers have a tall task.  I fear a blow out loss will rob them of any forward motion and really put the pressure on them in the locker room.  A pressure that I think Mike D'Antonio can not relieve and will make Kobe Vs. Dwight an even bigger story.

Some would say this is not a big story if they have a bad year, but do you ever remember a team that was favored to win the title struggle so badly in an NBA season where their marquee player, Kobe was in good form?  I don't and I'm eager to see what the fall out would be if they were to miss the playoffs.

Man U V. Real

I'm really excited as many are for this for leg of the UCL featuring Real Madrid Vs. Manchester United. It will be strange to see Man U playing in Madrid. For me it will be the first time and it should be a quite the scene. I have felt for the past few weeks that Man U have the advantage because they are cruising through the league and the major problems behind the scenes at Real give Man U the edge. Also add in the two Classico's (one matters one doesn't) sandwiched in the middle. I just feel that Man U is the more clean side this year and Real is just waiting to burst. That's what I've thought for week, but I've re-thought my opinion and I'm leaning towards a Real victory. Mainly because I think the tie will come down to the first leg and the second will not be as critical. The first leg will be played this Wednesday. As Sir Alex has pointed out the EPL really screwed Man U by making them play on Sunday. A huge mistake considering they have to travel for this leg. Real is at home and well rested going into Wednesday. Man U had to take Everton seriously as they have been a good side this year. They played most of their top players and won pretty handily. (Probably winning them the league in the process) Real took on Sevilla a traditionally solid Spanish side, but dispatched them easily. I don't think either team was pressed extremely hard, but the day of rest will be crucial. Both sides are going to have their A+ players healthy with the exception of Saint Iker. Diego Lopez has shown enough to say that he will not be a weak link, but I think the keepers are at least equal in quality. I believe this all comes down to the first leg because I don't see Man U at home beating Real by more than one goal, but I have a sneaking feeling that Real will win the first leg by 2 goals. I think Man U just can't match the speed in midfield of Real. (As long as Real doesn't start Modric, who can be counted on to trip over the ball at least three times) I think the fast track in Madrid will lead to sweeping counter attacks and the much better defensive midfield of Real will expose Man U. This isn't Real's best team and they have their share of problems, but in one game at home against a good side I think you will see their A game. Man U has not addressed their defensive Midfield. A much better attack with RVP, the return of Vidic and a weak EPL have masked these problems all season. They've had the fortune all year of getting that last goal and making that comeback, but on a fast track against a team that can score in bunches I think they are in big trouble. If Real wins that first tie 3-1 as I think they will the return leg will be a slow prodding game of football where Man U will find it hard to score a lot of goals and dangerous to press against Real lightning quick counter. Therefore the dressing room issues won't matter and the two Classico's won't mean as much. First leg Real 3-1 Second leg Man U 2-1. Real wins 4-3.

The Lakers Playoff Hopes

The Lakers are no doubt in a fight to make the playoffs. There record sits today at 23-27. I put believe they need to finish at about two games above .500 hundred to make at least the 8 seed. I haven't gone threw and figured it out. I think it would be best just to go game by game and see where we end up. Bobcats Even on the end of a back to back the Lakers have enough to win. 24-27 The Heat The heat have some flu struck stars, but they recover in time and trounce the Lakers 24-28 The Suns The Lakers get revenge. 25-28 The Clippers Would see like an easy loss for the Lake show, but the Clips are off form, but still have enough. 25-29 The Celtics First game after the break. A little bit of revenge in the air. The Celtics start missing Rondo 26-29 Trailblazers The Lakers have tended to lose this game all year. After the big revenge win the let down win. 26-30 Dallas This game will come down to health, but the Mavs are in just as bad a form and the Lakers get the win. 27-30 Nuggets Back to back on the road against a deep team. Sorry Kobe. 27-31 T-wolves Unless Kevin Love comes out of retirement 28-31 Atlanta Really Tough one, but I take the home team. 29-31 OKC This will be ugly. The Lakers will wish they could just forfeit. 29-32 Hornets Played the Lakers well last time out. After the grueling game the night before. 29-33 Raptors Toronto is suddenly better, but I'm not buying just yet. 30-33 Bulls Toss up. With D Rose at 50% I think the Bulls have the advantage. 30-34 Magic Easy Win on the road 31-34 Hawks Back to back on the road. 31-35 Pacers Ouch 31-36 First time they are five games under in a while. Kings Home sweet home 32-36 Suns Kind of a trap game on the road back to back. 32-37 The Wiz Well rested and at home 33-37 Warriors Brutal game. Gotta favor the home team. 33-38 T-Wolves At this point they have to be thanking their lucky stars Kevin Love is hurt. 34-38 Bucks Could be a tough game, but I see them getting it. 35-38 Kings Big playoff push is on. 36-38 Mavs The Lakers are media darlings again. 37-38 Griz Pivotal game for both teams. Have to figure Memphis is ready though. 37-39 Clippers The Lakers are the Clippers bitch this season. 37-40 Hornets Big Win 38-40 Warriors Bigger win at home 39-40 Spurs Now they will be wishing Pop rests his starters, but I would not want to have to face Kobe in the playoffs. 39-41 Rockets This game could really mean something. When in doubt take the home team 40-41 OK so I messed up somewhere. 41-41. The Lakers miss the playoffs. I felt I was pretty generous. With their lack of depth and injury woes the season could come unhinged completely and the Lakers could be out of it before we even know it. Kobe was having some elbow issues. Kobe is nearly ever really hurt. I wouldn't have put it past him to do make Howard feel bad not playing hurt. The Laker season has been one of great pain. I don't see it ending in the Playoffs.

Spain ='s Barca

Barca had 7 starters for Spain this past week in the friendly. Del Bosque could have easily started Villa up front and made it 8. Could you really blame him if he did. Could you blame him if he decided that playing a majority of the best team in the world probably gives him a distinct advantage over the rest of the world. Why wouldn't you take advantage of a situation where you can have all the starters of a team that's already considered the best in the world and plays a winning system? I won't go as far as putting 11 Barca players out there, but here's an ideal 11 for Spain's next WC Qualifier. Upfront Villa Cesc Pedro Midfield Xavi Inesta Sergio Back Line Alba Ramos Pique Arbeloa Villa makes sense and has been in better form. He just does see enough first team minutes. Cesc is in the best form of his career. He's not a true striker, but would you rather see Torres in there? Pedro seems to play better for Spain. Why, probably because I think Messi makes him nervous lately. 2 years ago he was a 20 goal scorer. I love Xabi Alonso, but why not start the best midfield in the world. The same one that driver Real and Xabi crazy. If you don't consider Sergio a better player that Xabi I won't argue with you, but you have to consider the play together factor and the value of a good role player. Midfielder who stays home and steal the ball from Ronadlo with ease. This was the toughest section of the team to sort out. Puyol is a great player who brings intangibles, but in the long run he's getting up there. I'll give Ramos the nod over him, because I guess Ramos is a great defender...I guess. Arbeloa plays well. Pique is still in his prime and Alba gives this team another goal threat. Something they need. Oh and the keeper easily Iker when he's healthy. He's a great leader like Puyol and he works behind a usually disorganized defense and works magic. I say he saves his team about .5 goals a game. Valdes if he can't play. I think this team has more continuity set up this way. A majority of the players play together on the best team in the world. Have won big trophies all over the place. Are for the most part in their primes and will be around for the 2014 World Cup. Villa and Pedro together don't equal Messi, but with the addition of Cesc on the pitch who can score I think it's a pretty good front line. It's not Argentina, but it's pretty good. The midfield is world class. The back line and keeper second to none. I was super critical of Del Bosque's Euro team selections. Playing David Silva upfront and constantly subbing Torres in. Silva to me is a great midfielder, but he's not a striker. Hence the lack of goals. Pedro would have given them more than Navas, but Pedro was just returning to form. Torres is a head case since coming back from injury. His goals were usually after thoughts. He was a distraction. Yet, they won the whole thing. The only argument I might make is they went to PK's against Portugal. Was that really necessary?

Barca and the Mona Lisa

To me criticizing Barca right now is like trying to find things wrong with the Mona Lisa. It's not because I'm a die hard fan, but when you basically win the league in the first 15 weeks, are favored in the league Cup and are a solid favorite in the UCL how can you be super critical of this team, considering their overall results over the past 5 years. They've had three draws and a loss over the past few months I'm ok with all of it. Why? Staying undefeated in the league would have pushed them to have to play down to the wire and added a distraction to the season they don't need. Also, drawing to Real on the Road in the Copa where you get an away goal is not terrible. Drawing to the traditionally third best team on the road isn't the worst thing. Drawing a home leg against Malaga is ok as long as you win the tie and they did. Losing to Real Soceidad is not the best thing, but it only happened after going a man down. I also think it is well documented that this time of year the pitches are in bad shape and most sides don't go out of their way to have them fast for Barca. The weather is cold, and the grounds are hard. It isn't exactly ideal conditions for a pass heavy team like Barca. So my major critique right now is that the current line up with Inesta on top as a striker may need to change against the top sides. I realize that they are trying to find away to get Cesc, who has been top notch, on the pitch. Against weaker competition the link up play between Inesta, Cesc, and Jordi is impossible to deal with. It causes the right side to really open up and has made it easier for Messi to function through the middle. Lately though the better teams have been pressing this lineup up high, policing Messi and causing Inesta to drop back into the defensive half. This makes it tough to spring the counter which is why it's usually so dangerous to press Barca up high. Teams don't respect Inesta as a dangerous counter attack striker, so they are pressing way up high and daring Barca to find a way through while surrounding Messi with defenders. The solution to me is simple. Put Villa back up top and put another legit striker on the pitch. That causes teams to have to park the bus allowing Barca to wear them down and control the ball and the game. I think more consideration has to be given with teams willing to press Barca up high. The line up just can't be rolled out there the same every time. Some tactical decisions have to be made in these key ties coming up. I look at how Valencia changed strategy when Villa came in and suddenly Barca looked like their old selves the final 15. They just ran out of time.

The EPL doesn't play the best football.

The Lakers are turning it around...Really?

So the Lakers are turning their season around after winning four of there last five and beating Minnesota last night. Kobe is turning into an assist machine and the offense is starting to jell....wait a second! I'm not buying it and here's why. Last week in the middle of a crucial week for LA coming off 2 losses to Chicago and Memphis the Lakers season was near the edge. They had two critical home games against Utah and OKC. They managed to handle Utah who is a playoff team this season. It was a good win for them. They then handled the somewhat sputtering Thunder. These were two season saving wins. Suddenly the Lake Show was 6 six games under and poised to pick up some easy wins against soft competition in the coming week. They had one final home game against the woeful Hornets on Tuesday. The Lakers mopped them up with relative ease and rested there stars in the fourth...no wait that's not what happened. The Lakers blew a big lead and were tied late in the fourth and held on to get a tougher than it should have been win. That's ok though they are still jellying and a win's a win. So the next night they dispatched the helpless Suns to start off their big road trip and secured their first win on the road in 2013...on no wait that's not what happened. After leading by 10 plus most of the game the Lakers collapsed in the fourth quarter. Dwight Howard re-injured his shoulder (killing in my mind any chance of trading him) and was out of the game. The Laker offense seemed to sputter instantly. Kobe got four points to draw them even, but missed a critical lay up late to allow the Suns to pull out of reach and secure the win. To say this wasn't a bad loss would be an understatement. The Suns are one of the leagues worst teams this year. It was a back to back, but it was the Lakers lack of depth that caught up to them in the end. Last night the Lakers were able to turn it all around by crushing the T-Wolves to get their first road win of 2013 in February mind you. Oh no wait that wasn't really how it all went down. The Lakers were up 29! That's right 29 and the T-Wolves who are without their best player, who wouldn't be in the top three of best players on the Lakers, battled back to get within four with the ball twice in the fourth. The T-wolves inability to defend finally caught up with them and the Lakers did get their first road win of 2013...in February. So what's my beef? All good teams have to beat the lesser competition. It doesn't always have to be with ease, but they need those wins to secure their playoff position. The Lakers this year have lost almost every time they have played a good team. As Kobe said after they beat the Thunder, "We finally beat a team worth a damn." (sorry Utah) The Lakers have not only in this week lost to an inferior team talent and record wise, but they struggled on full rest with a team that is in disarray. These are all bad signs. So, my beef is (yeah I know get to the point) the pundits are praising the revived Lakers. How can you praise anything this team has done over the course of this week? It's great that Kobe is passing the ball, but isn't that what Steve Nash is for? (My next Blog will address this topic) Aren't you supposed to beat these teams even in an off year? Wasn't the Suns loss a critical loss for them? Instead we hear about how they are starting to jell and they are finding their step as a team. Hog wash. Here's what I would expect an objective pundit on ESPN to say. The Lakers scored two season saving wins last week, but they are still 6 games below .500. They have a critical week ahead with 4 games they should be favored in. The Lakers need to sweep this week in a fashion a manner that shows they are progressing as a team. (After the last three games) The Lakers have gone 2 and 1 over the past three, but they have been tested in each game an collapsed against Phoenix. Although they might make the playoffs I can't imagine any team would be overly concerned with them in a seven game series. The Laker offense is still a major work in progress and there appear to be no signs of getting a player that can help them stabilize before the trade deadline. Dwight Howard continues to battle a bad shoulder and one has to wonder at what point do the Lakers seriously have to consider shutting him down. The other question that looms is with the Laker project failing this year does Howard have to consider shutting himself down so he doesn't damage his value? The Month of February is crucial for LA. Efforts like they gave last night will not get it done against even average competition in the NBA. They have more games they will be favored in and their effort so far against he better teams is as such that they will need to win every game they are favored the rest of this month.